Language:English
Empoli v Avellino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Empoli (Local)
Prediction 45.79%2.18fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.717%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.77%45.69%45.78%46.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.042.052.1552.91%48.96%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Avellino (Visit)
Prediction 24.96%4.01fair odd
EV +4.82%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.073%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.90%24.92%24.95%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.603.524.2031.75%27.78%28.37%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.25%3.42fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.602%
Kelly -0.858%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.93%29.39%29.26%31.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.123.153.3534.72%32.09%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Empoli (Local): 45.79%; Avellino (Visit): 24.96%; Draw: 29.25%. For Avellino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.47%EV -5.21%E -2.51%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.90%EV +4.82%E +1.15%K +1.51%G +0.073% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.63%EV -8.16%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.44%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -0.174%E -0.043%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.02%EV -7.04%E -3.47%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -0.174%E -0.043%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -10.79%E -3.54%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.02%EV -7.04%E -3.47%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -0.174%E -0.043%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -10.79%E -3.54%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -0.174%E -0.043%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -12.25%E -4.08%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -0.174%E -0.043%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -12.25%E -4.08%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.28%EV -8.87%E -4.46%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -0.174%E -0.043%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.70%EV -12.25%E -4.08%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.88%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -2.67%E -0.685%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -12.25%E -4.08%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -2.67%E -0.685%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -15.18%E -5.23%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.12%EV -7.50%E -3.71%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.01%EV -3.17%E -0.817%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -8.74%E -2.80%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-01 12:58 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.99%EV -5.21%E -2.51%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%EV -3.92%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -4.94%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.75%EV -10.70%E -5.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.48%EV -5.17%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -15.18%E -5.23%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.77%EV -4.75%E -2.28%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -6.41%E -1.71%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.48%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.41%E -1.71%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.51%EV -10.70%E -5.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -6.41%E -1.71%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -15.76%E -5.47%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -2.02%E -0.602%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.72%EV -7.50%E -3.71%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.72%EV -7.50%E -3.71%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -10.16%E -2.82%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -15.18%E -5.23%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.05%EV -11.16%E -5.75%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 24.95%EV -10.66%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 29.00%EV -9.91%E -3.22%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-01 12:58 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.95%EV -9.33%E -4.71%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -11.40%E -3.21%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -4.94%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -8.41%E -4.21%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -10.70%E -5.49%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.08%EV -13.45%E -7.12%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -12.65%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -12.25%E -4.08%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.79%EV -12.07%E -6.29%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -15.15%E -4.46%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -1.54%E -0.717%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -17.64%E -5.35%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -1.54%E -0.717%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -17.64%E -5.35%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -1.54%E -0.717%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -17.64%E -5.35%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -1.54%E -0.717%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -17.64%E -5.35%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -1.54%E -0.717%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -17.64%E -5.35%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -1.54%E -0.717%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -17.64%E -5.35%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 12:46 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -1.54%E -0.717%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -17.64%E -5.35%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.77%EV -2.00%E -0.934%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -18.89%E -5.81%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -2.92%E -1.38%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -18.89%E -5.81%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -2.92%E -1.38%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -18.89%E -5.81%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -3.83%E -1.82%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -20.14%E -6.29%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.05%EV -6.12%E -2.99%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.02%EV -21.39%E -6.79%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -10.79%E -3.54%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.16% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87% | 1.2% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.91% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70% | 1.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.91% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70% | 1.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.91% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70% | 1.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.91% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70% | 1.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |