Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Empoli v Arezzo

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00 UTC

Final: Empoli 0–1 Arezzo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Empoli (Local)

Prediction 45.78%2.18fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.35%45.91%45.75%48.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.971.992.1056.50%50.66%50.25%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arezzo (Visit)

Prediction 25.03%3.99fair odd
EV +2.63%
Edge +0.642%
Kelly +0.850%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.02%24.91%25.01%26.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.733.754.1029.41%26.82%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.19%3.43fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.658%
Kelly -0.939%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.83%29.17%29.24%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.923.173.203.3534.25%31.54%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Empoli (Local): 45.78%; Arezzo (Visit): 25.03%; Draw: 29.19%. For Arezzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV +2.63%E +0.642%K +0.850%G +0.022%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 17:03
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV +0.130%E +0.033%K +0.043%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV +0.130%E +0.033%K +0.043%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 17:03
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -12.57%E -6.58%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV +0.130%E +0.033%K +0.043%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 10:50
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -12.57%E -6.58%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV +0.130%E +0.033%K +0.043%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:05
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:09
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:05
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:09
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:10
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -2.21%E -0.658%K -0.939%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 15:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.66%EV -11.65%E -6.04%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.59%EV -2.37%E -0.608%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.75%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 17:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87%EV -4.79%E -2.30%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -3.62%E -0.941%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -5.12%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 10:50
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.26%EV -3.87%E -1.84%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.75%EV -3.87%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.98%EV -7.46%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-08 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 10:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 12:05
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 13:40
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -15.32%E -8.28%K -18.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 15:10
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -7.53%E -3.73%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.72%EV -5.13%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.91%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 12:10
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.53%EV -3.87%E -1.84%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 15:00
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.43%EV -7.53%E -3.73%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 10:49
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.43%EV -7.53%E -3.73%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 10:50
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -15.32%E -8.28%K -18.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 17:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.33%EV -16.23%E -8.87%K -19.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.08%EV -8.04%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 15:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.33%EV -16.23%E -8.87%K -19.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.08%EV -8.04%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.33%EV -16.23%E -8.87%K -19.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.08%EV -8.04%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 15:09
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.38%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 13:40
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -7.38%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.12%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-08 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.80%EV -5.70%E -2.77%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.38%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 10:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.80%EV -5.70%E -2.77%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.38%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 10:10
BetUS🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.80%EV -5.70%E -2.77%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.38%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 10:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.00%EV -9.37%E -4.73%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -7.38%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:05
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 09:05
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 09:05
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 09:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 09:04
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 15:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.26%EV -18.98%E -10.72%K -24.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.73%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.01%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-08 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.74%EV -9.37%E -4.73%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -11.13%E -3.14%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -8.04%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 10:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -5.12%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 17:05
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 17:05
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 14:55
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 17:05
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 23:58
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -6.58%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 23:59
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 14:40
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 14:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.65%EV -11.20%E -5.77%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-09 10:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.33%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.87%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.81%EV -14.76%E -5.05%K -7.69%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-09 12:07
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.92%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.64%E -3.95%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -13.88%E -4.71%K -7.12%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-09 17:05
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -8.45%E -4.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.89%E -4.38%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.89%2.9%2026-09-09 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.89%2.9%2026-09-09 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.89%2.9%2026-09-09 17:20
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.89%2.9%2026-09-09 17:30
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.71%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.30%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.99%4.2%2026-09-09 17:25