Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cremonese v Padova

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 17:31 UTC

Final: Cremonese 3–1 Padova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cremonese (Local)

Prediction 47.56%2.10fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.986%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.44%47.56%47.56%50.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.921.952.0658.82%52.12%51.28%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Padova (Visit)

Prediction 23.43%4.27fair odd
EV +0.749%
Edge +0.174%
Kelly +0.227%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.75%23.49%23.44%25.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.943.954.3027.78%25.40%25.32%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.441%
Kelly +0.617%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.21%28.94%29.00%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.203.5034.48%31.26%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cremonese (Local): 47.56%; Padova (Visit): 23.43%; Draw: 29.01%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -9.64%E -5.07%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -1.59%E -0.380%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV +1.54%E +0.441%K +0.617%G +0.010%5.0%2026-09-06 17:08
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.22%EV -5.84%E -2.95%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.29%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.50%EV -2.81%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 17:05
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 17:25
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -9.16%E -4.80%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 17:25
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.76%EV -8.69%E -4.53%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.45%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:25
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -9.16%E -4.80%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 17:25
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.73%EV -5.36%E -2.69%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.22%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.05%EV -5.13%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 17:25
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.94%EV -5.84%E -2.95%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 17:05
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.97%EV -9.64%E -5.07%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.04%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 17:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.66%EV -9.64%E -5.07%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 17:25
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.32%EV -14.87%E -8.31%K -18.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 17:10
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.93%EV -2.03%E -0.986%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.86%EV -0.891%E -0.211%K -0.276%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.21%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-06 17:25
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -5.11%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 17:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -9.64%E -5.07%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 17:10
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 17:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.99%EV -11.54%E -6.21%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.38%EV -15.82%E -8.94%K -20.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.25%EV -16.30%E -9.26%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.25%EV -16.30%E -9.26%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 17:10
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -7.45%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 17:25
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72%EV -8.69%E -4.53%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.45%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:06
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72%EV -8.69%E -4.53%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.45%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -2.98%E -1.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 17:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -2.98%E -1.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 17:15
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 17:25
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 17:04
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 17:05
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 17:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 17:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.68%EV -14.40%E -8.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.06%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.40%EV -19.15%E -11.27%K -27.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.97%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-06 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.64%EV -5.84%E -2.95%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -11.51%E -3.77%K -5.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 17:20
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.70%EV -5.84%E -2.95%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 17:25
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 17:20
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -9.16%E -4.80%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.48%EV -8.21%E -4.26%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.42%EV -10.26%E -2.68%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.10%EV -13.54%E -4.54%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 17:03
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.02%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.20%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.79%EV -15.28%E -5.23%K -7.96%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-06 17:25
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -15.86%E -5.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-09-06 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-09-06 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.7%2026-09-06 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.7%2026-09-06 17:25
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 47.54%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.68%2.1%2026-09-06 17:20