Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cremonese v Padova

Início: 2026-09-06 17:31 UTC

Final: Cremonese 3–1 Padova

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cremonese (Local)

Previsão 47.56%2.10odd justa
EV -2.03%
Vantagem -0.986%
Kelly -1.92%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.06

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.44%47.56%47.56%50.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.701.921.952.0658.82%52.12%51.28%48.54%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Padova (Visitante)

Previsão 23.43%4.27odd justa
EV +0.749%
Vantagem +0.174%
Kelly +0.227%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.75%23.49%23.44%25.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.603.943.954.3027.78%25.40%25.32%23.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.01%3.45odd justa
EV +1.54%
Vantagem +0.441%
Kelly +0.617%
Crescimento +0.010%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.21%28.94%29.00%30.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.203.203.5034.48%31.26%31.25%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cremonese (Local): 47.56%; Padova (Visitante): 23.43%; Empate: 29.01%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.45. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.54%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -9.64%E -5.07%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -1.59%E -0.380%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV +1.54%E +0.441%K +0.617%G +0.010%5.0%2026-09-06 17:08
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +0.749%E +0.174%K +0.227%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -1.36%E -0.399%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.22%EV -5.84%E -2.95%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.29%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.50%EV -2.81%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 17:05
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 17:25
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -9.16%E -4.80%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 17:25
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.76%EV -8.69%E -4.53%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.45%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:25
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -9.16%E -4.80%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 17:25
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.73%EV -5.36%E -2.69%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.22%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.05%EV -5.13%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 17:25
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.94%EV -5.84%E -2.95%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 17:05
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.97%EV -9.64%E -5.07%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.04%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 17:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.66%EV -9.64%E -5.07%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 17:25
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.32%EV -14.87%E -8.31%K -18.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 17:10
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.93%EV -2.03%E -0.986%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.86%EV -0.891%E -0.211%K -0.276%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.21%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-06 17:25
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -5.11%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 17:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -9.64%E -5.07%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 17:10
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 17:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.99%EV -11.54%E -6.21%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.38%EV -15.82%E -8.94%K -20.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.25%EV -16.30%E -9.26%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.25%EV -16.30%E -9.26%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.25%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 17:10
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -7.45%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 17:25
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72%EV -8.69%E -4.53%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.45%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:06
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72%EV -8.69%E -4.53%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.45%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -2.98%E -1.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 17:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -2.98%E -1.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 17:15
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -3.94%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 17:25
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 17:04
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 17:05
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 17:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 17:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.68%EV -14.40%E -8.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.06%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.40%EV -19.15%E -11.27%K -27.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.97%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -10.06%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-06 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.64%EV -5.84%E -2.95%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -11.51%E -3.77%K -5.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 17:20
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.70%EV -5.84%E -2.95%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 17:25
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -10.97%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 17:20
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -9.16%E -4.80%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.48%EV -8.21%E -4.26%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.42%EV -10.26%E -2.68%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.10%EV -13.54%E -4.54%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 17:03
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.02%EV -12.02%E -6.50%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.20%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.79%EV -15.28%E -5.23%K -7.96%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-06 17:25
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -7.26%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -15.86%E -5.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 17:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-09-06 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-09-06 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.7%2026-09-06 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.7%2026-09-06 17:25
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.54%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.68%2.1%2026-09-06 17:20