Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC v Spezia

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 16:17 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 43.99%2.27fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.78%44.01%44.18%44.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.092.102.1754.05%47.78%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spezia (Visit)

Prediction 26.27%3.81fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.629%
Kelly +0.846%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.05%26.15%26.17%28.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.453.403.9031.25%28.97%29.41%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.74%3.36fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.55%29.85%29.66%31.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.083.103.2537.04%32.42%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 43.99%; Spezia (Visit): 26.27%; Draw: 29.74%. For Spezia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.57%EV -5.86%E -2.74%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV +2.45%E +0.629%K +0.846%G +0.021%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.97%EV -8.40%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 16:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.57%EV -5.86%E -2.74%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV +2.45%E +0.629%K +0.846%G +0.021%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.97%EV -8.40%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 16:14
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.67%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +2.45%E +0.629%K +0.846%G +0.021%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 16:15
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.52%EV -4.54%E -2.09%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.90%EV +1.93%E +0.497%K +0.669%G +0.013%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.57%EV -6.02%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-21 16:14
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.78%EV -6.74%E -3.18%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -0.175%E -0.046%K -0.062%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.23%EV -6.61%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 16:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -0.175%E -0.046%K -0.062%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -12.26%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-21 16:15
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -1.49%E -0.397%K -0.541%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -13.75%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-21 16:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.06%EV -4.98%E -2.31%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -2.80%E -0.757%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -6.32%E -2.00%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 16:15
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.74%EV -12.02%E -6.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -2.80%E -0.757%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -14.35%E -4.98%K -7.63%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-21 16:15
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.12%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -9.29%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 16:15
Bovada🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -8.50%E -4.09%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -4.12%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 16:12
BetUS🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -8.50%E -4.09%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -4.12%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 16:14
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.04%EV -4.54%E -2.09%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -3.34%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 16:13
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.32%E -2.00%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 16:15
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 16:14
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -12.02%E -6.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -14.35%E -4.98%K -7.63%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.74%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -9.29%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 16:15
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.74%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -9.29%E -3.05%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 16:15
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 16:15
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.37%E -2.72%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 16:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 16:14
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -6.32%E -2.00%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 16:14
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 16:14
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 16:15
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 16:14
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 16:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 16:14
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.02%E -6.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-21 16:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 44.02%EV -12.46%E -6.26%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.77%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.21%EV -13.75%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-21 16:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.52%EV -14.22%E -7.29%K -14.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.94%EV -13.75%E -4.74%K -7.24%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-21 16:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 44.86%EV -18.62%E -10.07%K -21.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.41%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.74%EV -19.70%E -7.30%K -11.59%G +0.000%20.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -12.00%E -3.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-21 16:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.31%E -4.03%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 16:14
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:13
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -9.82%E -4.79%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-21 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.29%EV -12.02%E -6.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.64%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.06%EV -14.35%E -4.98%K -7.63%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-21 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.78%EV -5.86%E -2.74%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -15.94%E -4.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-21 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -6.74%E -3.18%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -15.94%E -4.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -6.32%E -2.00%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 16:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -6.74%E -3.18%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -15.94%E -4.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -6.32%E -2.00%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 16:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.67%EV -12.90%E -6.52%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.02%EV -15.94%E -4.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.31%EV -12.26%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-21 16:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-02-21 16:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-02-21 16:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-02-21 16:15
Matchbook2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-02-21 16:15
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.56%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.84%2.9%2026-02-21 16:15