Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC v Padova

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Final: Cesena FC 3–4 Padova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 67.89%1.47fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -12.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.34%67.86%67.89%69.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.361.361.4079.37%73.54%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Padova (Visit)

Prediction 12.98%7.70fair odd
EV +9.07%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.111%

assuming max odds 8.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.37%12.94%13.04%15.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.916.908.4016.67%14.47%14.49%11.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.13%5.23fair odd
EV +5.97%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 5.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.15%19.19%19.07%21.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.694.705.5425.00%21.32%21.28%18.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 67.89%; Padova (Visit): 12.98%; Draw: 19.13%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.70. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.73%EV -5.64%E -4.06%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.37%EV +9.07%E +1.08%K +1.23%G +0.111%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.90%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +3.87%E +0.484%K +0.553%G +0.021%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 18:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.03%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +1.28%E +0.163%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.03%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +1.28%E +0.163%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.82%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.90%EV +0.626%E +0.081%K +0.093%G +0.001%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.27%EV -12.96%E -2.85%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:24
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.82%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.90%EV +0.626%E +0.081%K +0.093%G +0.001%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.27%EV -12.96%E -2.85%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:15
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 18:25
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -6.27%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 18:14
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 18:24
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 18:23
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.66%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.50%EV -5.87%E -0.809%K -0.939%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -16.79%E -3.86%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.32%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.28%EV -6.52%E -0.905%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.39%EV -0.530%E -0.102%K -0.126%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-08 18:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.77%EV -6.52%E -0.905%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-08 18:25
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 17:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.38%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.96%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:25
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.84%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 18:24
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 18:04
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:24
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.61%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-08 18:24
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 68.61%EV -13.78%E -10.85%K -51.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.45%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.94%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-08 18:24
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.41%EV -10.41%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -7.23%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.41%EV -10.41%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -7.23%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 17:59
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.89%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 18:00
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 17:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 17:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.33%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 18:25
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.35%EV -5.64%E -4.06%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.50%EV -14.95%E -2.28%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.54I 18.05%NM 17.15%EV +5.97%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%5.3%2026-05-08 18:24
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-08 18:00
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-08 17:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.83%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-08 17:59
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.15%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.32%EV -17.17%E -3.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-08 18:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 68.27%EV -14.46%E -11.48%K -55.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.23%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.50%EV -11.05%E -2.38%K -3.03%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-08 18:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.29%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.54%EV -18.85%E -3.02%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 66.42%EV -11.07%E -8.45%K -35.70%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.03%EV -19.50%E -3.15%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.55%EV -14.88%E -3.34%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-08 18:14
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:00
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.63%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.66%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-08 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.34%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.26%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%EV -23.48%E -5.87%K -7.83%G +0.000%16.9%2026-05-08 18:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.38%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-05-08 18:24
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-05-08 18:24