L’École des cotes

Cesena FC v Padova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Score final : Cesena FC 3–4 Padova

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cesena FC (Local)

Prévision 67.89%1.47cote équitable
EV -4.96%
Avantage -3.54%
Kelly -12.39%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
64.34%67.86%67.89%69.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.261.361.361.4079.37%73.54%73.53%71.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Padova (Visiteur)

Prévision 12.98%7.70cote équitable
EV +9.07%
Avantage +1.08%
Kelly +1.23%
Croissance +0.111%

avec la cote maximale 8.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.37%12.94%13.04%15.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.006.916.908.4016.67%14.47%14.49%11.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 19.13%5.23cote équitable
EV +5.97%
Avantage +1.08%
Kelly +1.32%
Croissance +0.079%

avec la cote maximale 5.54

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.15%19.19%19.07%21.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.694.705.5425.00%21.32%21.28%18.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.39I 71.94%NM 68.73%EV -5.64%E -4.06%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.37%EV +9.07%E +1.08%K +1.23%G +0.111%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.90%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +3.87%E +0.484%K +0.553%G +0.021%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 18:04
LowVig.ag1.36I 73.53%NM 68.03%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +1.28%E +0.163%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:15
BetOnline.ag1.36I 73.53%NM 68.03%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +1.28%E +0.163%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Bovada1.36I 73.53%NM 67.82%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.90%EV +0.626%E +0.081%K +0.093%G +0.001%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.27%EV -12.96%E -2.85%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:24
BetUS1.36I 73.53%NM 67.82%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.90%EV +0.626%E +0.081%K +0.093%G +0.001%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.27%EV -12.96%E -2.85%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:15
Coolbet1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 18:25
DraftKings1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -6.27%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 18:14
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 18:24
FanDuel1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 18:23
PlayUp1.36I 73.53%NM 66.66%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.50%EV -5.87%E -0.809%K -0.939%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -16.79%E -3.86%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Codere (IT)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.32%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.28%EV -6.52%E -0.905%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.39%EV -0.530%E -0.102%K -0.126%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-08 18:15
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.77%EV -6.52%E -0.905%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-08 18:25
Fanatics1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 17:59
ATG (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 18:00
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:14
PointsBet (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.38%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Bet Right1.37I 72.99%NM 66.96%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:25
William Hill1.35I 74.07%NM 67.84%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 18:24
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 18:04
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:25
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:24
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 67.61%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-08 18:24
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 18:25
NetBet (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 68.61%EV -13.78%E -10.85%K -51.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.45%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.94%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-08 18:24
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.41%EV -10.41%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -7.23%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Betsson1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.41%EV -10.41%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -7.23%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 17:59
theScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.89%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 18:00
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
LiveScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 17:59
Virgin Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 17:59
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.33%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 18:25
1xBet1.39I 71.94%NM 68.35%EV -5.64%E -4.06%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.50%EV -14.95%E -2.28%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.54I 18.05%NM 17.15%EV +5.97%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%5.3%2026-05-08 18:24
LeoVegas1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-08 18:00
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-08 17:59
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.83%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-08 17:59
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.15%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.32%EV -17.17%E -3.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-08 18:24
Betclic (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 68.27%EV -14.46%E -11.48%K -55.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.23%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.50%EV -11.05%E -2.38%K -3.03%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-08 18:05
Winamax (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.29%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.54%EV -18.85%E -3.02%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 18:05
Unibet (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 66.42%EV -11.07%E -8.45%K -35.70%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.03%EV -19.50%E -3.15%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.55%EV -14.88%E -3.34%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-08 18:14
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:00
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 17:59
Winamax (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.63%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.66%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-08 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 64.34%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.26%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%EV -23.48%E -5.87%K -7.83%G +0.000%16.9%2026-05-08 18:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.38%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-05-08 18:24
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-05-08 18:24