La escuela de los momios

Cesena FC v Padova

Inicio: 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Final: Cesena FC 3–4 Padova

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cesena FC (Local)

Predicción 67.89%1.47momio equitativo
EV -4.96%
Ventaja -3.54%
Kelly -12.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.34%67.86%67.89%69.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.261.361.361.4079.37%73.54%73.53%71.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Padova (Visitante)

Predicción 12.98%7.70momio equitativo
EV +9.07%
Ventaja +1.08%
Kelly +1.23%
Crecimiento +0.111%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.37%12.94%13.04%15.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.006.916.908.4016.67%14.47%14.49%11.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 19.13%5.23momio equitativo
EV +5.97%
Ventaja +1.08%
Kelly +1.32%
Crecimiento +0.079%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.15%19.19%19.07%21.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.694.705.5425.00%21.32%21.28%18.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.39I 71.94%NM 68.73%EV -5.64%E -4.06%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.37%EV +9.07%E +1.08%K +1.23%G +0.111%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.90%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +3.87%E +0.484%K +0.553%G +0.021%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 18:04
LowVig.ag1.36I 73.53%NM 68.03%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +1.28%E +0.163%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:15
BetOnline.ag1.36I 73.53%NM 68.03%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +1.28%E +0.163%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Bovada1.36I 73.53%NM 67.82%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.90%EV +0.626%E +0.081%K +0.093%G +0.001%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.27%EV -12.96%E -2.85%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:24
BetUS1.36I 73.53%NM 67.82%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.90%EV +0.626%E +0.081%K +0.093%G +0.001%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.27%EV -12.96%E -2.85%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 18:15
Coolbet1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 18:25
DraftKings1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -6.27%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 18:14
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 18:24
FanDuel1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -2.62%E -0.349%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 18:23
PlayUp1.36I 73.53%NM 66.66%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.50%EV -5.87%E -0.809%K -0.939%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -16.79%E -3.86%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Codere (IT)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.32%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.28%EV -6.52%E -0.905%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.39%EV -0.530%E -0.102%K -0.126%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-08 18:15
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.77%EV -6.52%E -0.905%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-08 18:25
Fanatics1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 17:59
ATG (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 18:00
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:14
PointsBet (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.38%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Bet Right1.37I 72.99%NM 66.96%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:25
William Hill1.35I 74.07%NM 67.84%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 18:24
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 18:04
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:25
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -8.18%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-08 18:24
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 67.61%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-08 18:24
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 18:25
NetBet (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 68.61%EV -13.78%E -10.85%K -51.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.45%EV -9.11%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.94%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-08 18:24
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.41%EV -10.41%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -7.23%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
Betsson1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -6.99%E -5.11%K -18.90%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.41%EV -10.41%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -7.23%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 18:14
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 17:59
theScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.89%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.14%E -1.92%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 18:00
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 17:59
LiveScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 17:59
Virgin Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -7.67%E -5.64%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 17:59
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.33%EV -12.36%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 18:25
1xBet1.39I 71.94%NM 68.35%EV -5.64%E -4.06%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.50%EV -14.95%E -2.28%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.54I 18.05%NM 17.15%EV +5.97%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%5.3%2026-05-08 18:24
LeoVegas1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -12.01%E -2.61%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-08 18:00
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-08 17:59
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.83%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -13.92%E -3.09%K -3.98%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-08 17:59
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.15%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.32%EV -17.17%E -3.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-08 18:24
Betclic (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 68.27%EV -14.46%E -11.48%K -55.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.23%EV -15.60%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.50%EV -11.05%E -2.38%K -3.03%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-08 18:05
Winamax (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.29%EV -8.35%E -6.19%K -23.86%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.54%EV -18.85%E -3.02%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -4.36%E -0.871%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 18:05
Unibet (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 66.42%EV -11.07%E -8.45%K -35.70%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.03%EV -19.50%E -3.15%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.55%EV -14.88%E -3.34%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-08 18:14
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:00
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 17:59
Winamax (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.63%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.66%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -10.09%E -2.15%K -2.73%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-08 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 64.34%EV -9.71%E -7.30%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.26%EV -22.10%E -3.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%EV -23.48%E -5.87%K -7.83%G +0.000%16.9%2026-05-08 18:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 69.04%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.38%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-05-08 18:24
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-05-08 18:24