Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avellino v Modena

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Final: Avellino 1–0 Modena

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avellino (Local)

Prediction 62.72%1.59fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.31%62.56%62.70%64.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.491.481.5672.46%67.17%67.57%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Modena (Visit)

Prediction 14.70%6.80fair odd
EV +6.54%
Edge +0.903%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.08%14.76%14.73%16.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.006.007.2519.23%16.66%16.67%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.59%4.43fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.505%
Kelly -0.657%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.77%22.67%22.57%23.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.973.904.3327.03%25.17%25.64%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avellino (Local): 62.72%; Modena (Visit): 14.70%; Draw: 22.59%. For Modena (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.22%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.08%EV +6.54%E +0.903%K +1.05%G +0.069%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -9.64%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-08 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.32%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.62%EV -0.069%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -5.13%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 18:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.32%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.62%EV -0.069%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -5.13%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 18:23
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.55%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.96%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -0.804%E -0.119%K -0.140%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -11.90%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.84%EV -8.44%E -5.78%K -18.34%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.23%EV -3.74%E -0.571%K -0.674%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -4.00%E -0.940%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.26%EV -3.42%E -2.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.99%EV -5.80%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 18:20
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.17%EV -4.05%E -2.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -7.38%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 18:20
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.71%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -2.19%E -0.505%K -0.657%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.13%EV -6.55%E -4.40%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -5.13%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 18:25
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -7.38%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 17:58
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.26%EV -8.44%E -5.78%K -18.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -7.38%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:24
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.75%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.12%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.12%EV -6.25%E -1.51%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 18:24
Bet Right🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.38%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.90%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-08 18:25
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.64%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-08 18:24
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.64%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-08 18:25
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.64%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-08 18:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.32%EV -9.06%E -6.25%K -20.14%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -4.48%E -0.689%K -0.814%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-08 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.85%EV -4.67%E -3.07%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.93%EV -5.95%E -0.929%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22%EV -2.87%E -0.667%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-08 18:24
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.27%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -8.15%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -7.38%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 18:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.67%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.86%EV -8.89%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.38%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 18:14
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.37%EV -6.55%E -4.40%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.23%EV -10.36%E -1.70%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.39%EV -6.25%E -1.51%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.37%EV -6.55%E -4.40%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.23%EV -10.36%E -1.70%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.39%EV -6.25%E -1.51%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 18:24
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.05%E -2.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -9.64%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 17:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.13%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 18:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.90%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.90%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:19
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -5.93%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.90%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:20
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -9.06%E -6.25%K -20.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -9.64%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-08 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.64%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 18:00
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-08 17:58
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -12.20%E -8.71%K -30.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.74%EV -11.83%E -1.97%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -9.64%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-08 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.16%EV -13.45%E -9.75%K -35.40%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.77%EV -13.30%E -2.25%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.07%EV -10.77%E -2.73%K -3.65%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-08 18:24
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.72%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -15.50%E -2.70%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.72%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -15.50%E -2.70%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.72%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -15.50%E -2.70%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.34%EV -8.44%E -5.78%K -18.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.58%EV -15.50%E -2.70%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.08%EV -12.35%E -3.18%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.37%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -15.50%E -2.70%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-08 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.19%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.04%EV -16.23%E -2.85%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -5.13%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 18:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.40%EV -2.16%E -1.39%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -11.90%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 18:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.40%EV -2.16%E -1.39%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -11.90%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.40%EV -2.16%E -1.39%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -11.90%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 18:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -13.03%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -13.03%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -13.03%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -13.03%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -13.03%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:19
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -13.03%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:20
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -19.17%E -3.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -13.03%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.34%EV -3.42%E -2.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%EV -20.64%E -3.82%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.74%EV -13.03%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -4.05%E -2.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -20.64%E -3.82%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -4.05%E -2.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -20.64%E -3.82%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 18:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.30%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.35%EV -20.64%E -3.82%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.35%EV -10.77%E -2.73%K -3.65%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.10%EV -10.94%E -7.71%K -26.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.07%EV -20.64%E -3.82%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.83%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-08 18:25
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.44%EV -5.30%E -3.51%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.94%EV -22.11%E -4.17%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -14.16%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-08 18:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.36%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.96%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.89%EV -23.58%E -4.54%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -16.42%E -4.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-08 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.26%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-05-08 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.26%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-05-08 18:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.26%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-05-08 18:20
Smarkets1.54I 64.94%NM 64.26%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-05-08 18:05
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 64.26%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-05-08 18:20