The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Parma v Bologna

2026-11-07 17:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parma (Local)

Prediction 21.39%4.68fair odd
EV +2.67%
Edge +0.556%
Kelly +0.703%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.67%21.29%21.37%22.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.314.304.8026.32%23.21%23.26%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bologna (Visit)

Prediction 51.79%1.93fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.564%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.79%51.92%51.82%53.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.801.801.9160.24%55.51%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.82%3.73fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.282%
Kelly -0.387%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.08%26.79%26.80%27.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.503.6931.25%28.73%28.57%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Parma (Local): 21.39%; Bologna (Visit): 51.79%; Draw: 26.82%. For Parma (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.80, producing a positive expected value of +2.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV +2.67%E +0.556%K +0.703%G +0.019%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -8.33%E -4.70%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 12:35
1xBet🎯4.63I 21.60%NM 21.26%EV -0.965%E -0.209%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.07%EV -2.11%E -1.12%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.67%EV -1.04%E -0.282%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.6%2026-11-01 12:45
Unibet (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.14%EV -4.18%E -2.26%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43%EV -2.11%E -0.579%K -0.798%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-01 11:10
Unibet (NL)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.14%EV -4.18%E -2.26%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43%EV -2.11%E -0.579%K -0.798%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-01 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.14%EV -4.18%E -2.26%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43%EV -2.11%E -0.579%K -0.798%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-01 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.14%EV -4.18%E -2.26%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43%EV -2.11%E -0.579%K -0.798%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-01 11:10
GTbets🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.41%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.98%EV -2.11%E -1.12%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.61%EV -6.41%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-01 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.01%EV -4.70%E -2.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.73%EV -3.99%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-01 12:35
Pinnacle🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.77%EV -4.70%E -2.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.06%EV -5.60%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 12:00
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 11:15
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.46%E -0.960%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-01 12:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -3.75%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -8.33%E -4.70%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.46%E -0.960%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -5.89%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.50%EV -4.18%E -2.26%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 13:05
SportsBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -5.89%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.46%E -0.960%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 11:59
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -5.89%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.74%E -3.15%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -5.89%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 12:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.45%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 13:05
PlayUp🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.11%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.88%EV -8.33%E -4.70%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 13:05
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -7.38%E -1.70%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 11:40
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.38%E -1.70%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.83%EV -8.33%E -4.70%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 12:00
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.02%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -6.26%E -3.46%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 11:40
BetRivers🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.02%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -6.26%E -3.46%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 11:40
betPARX🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.02%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -6.26%E -3.46%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Bally Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.02%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -6.26%E -3.46%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Caesars🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -8.02%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -7.29%E -4.07%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 11:58
Bet Right🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 11:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 11:29
Bovada🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.79%EV -1.08%E -0.564%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 11:59
LeoVegas🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.27%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 12:35
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.27%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 11:40
TABtouch🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.41%EV -7.29%E -4.07%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.41%EV -7.29%E -4.07%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 11:40
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.41%EV -7.29%E -4.07%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 11:40
picklebet_au🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 13:05
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 12:00
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.77%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -9.36%E -5.35%K -12.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 11:20
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.36%E -5.35%K -12.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-01 10:54
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.68%EV -14.02%E -8.45%K -21.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.50%EV -11.50%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%14.4%2026-11-01 13:04
Betclic (FR)🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 21.46%EV -11.23%E -2.71%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.79%EV -10.92%E -6.35%K -15.16%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.75%EV -10.70%E -3.21%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 13:04
Winamax (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -12.30%E -3.00%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.47%EV -7.81%E -4.39%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 13:05
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -12.30%E -3.00%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -8.33%E -4.70%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -12.30%E -3.00%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -8.33%E -4.70%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -8.82%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 11:40
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -12.30%E -3.00%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.16%EV -8.85%E -5.03%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.16%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -18.72%E -4.93%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.54%EV -11.95%E -7.03%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -14.18%E -4.43%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.4%2026-11-01 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-11-01 12:00
Matchbook◎3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.59%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%11.4%2026-11-01 11:45
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.54%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%13.7%2026-11-01 13:05