Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Parma v Bologna

2026-11-07 17:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Parma (Local)

Predicción 21.37%4.68momio equitativo
EV +2.59%
Ventaja +0.539%
Kelly +0.681%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.67%21.28%21.33%22.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.314.304.8026.67%23.22%23.26%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bologna (Visitante)

Predicción 51.68%1.93momio equitativo
EV -1.28%
Ventaja -0.671%
Kelly -1.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.79%51.81%51.71%53.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.671.811.801.9159.88%55.31%55.56%52.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.94%3.71momio equitativo
EV -0.581%
Ventaja -0.158%
Kelly -0.216%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.08%26.91%26.96%27.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.463.453.6931.25%28.91%28.99%27.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Parma (Local): 21.37%; Bologna (Visitante): 51.68%; Empate: 26.94%. Para Parma (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.68. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.80, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.59%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV +2.59%E +0.539%K +0.681%G +0.018%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 12:35
1xBet🎯4.63I 21.60%NM 21.26%EV -1.05%E -0.226%K -0.288%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.07%EV -2.32%E -1.23%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.67%EV -0.581%E -0.158%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.6%2026-11-01 12:45
Unibet (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.48%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -3.35%E -1.79%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.01%E -0.835%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.48%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -3.35%E -1.79%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.01%E -0.835%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.48%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -3.35%E -1.79%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.01%E -0.835%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.48%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -3.35%E -1.79%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.01%E -0.835%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 13:15
GTbets🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.41%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.98%EV -2.32%E -1.23%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.61%EV -5.97%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-01 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.01%EV -4.90%E -2.66%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.73%EV -3.55%E -0.990%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-01 12:35
Pinnacle🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.77%EV -4.90%E -2.66%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.06%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 12:00
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 11:15
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.01%E -0.835%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-01 12:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.01%E -0.835%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -5.96%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.17%EV -3.87%E -2.08%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 13:35
SportsBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -5.96%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.01%E -0.835%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 11:59
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -5.96%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -5.96%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 12:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -7.03%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 13:25
PlayUp🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.11%EV -7.03%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.88%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 13:05
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -7.46%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 11:40
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.46%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.83%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 12:00
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.10%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.05%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 13:15
BetRivers🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.10%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.05%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 13:15
betPARX🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.10%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.05%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 13:15
Bally Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.10%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.05%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 13:15
Caesars🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -8.10%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -7.48%E -4.18%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 11:58
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -9.17%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 13:14
Bet Right🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -9.17%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 11:15
Bovada🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.79%EV -1.28%E -0.671%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -7.05%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 11:59
LeoVegas🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-01 13:25
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.93%EV -6.45%E -3.56%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 13:15
picklebet_au🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 13:05
Everygame🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 11:53
TABtouch🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 13:15
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 13:15
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 12:00
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -9.55%E -5.46%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 11:20
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.55%E -5.46%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-01 10:54
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.89%EV -10.24%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.53%EV -13.69%E -8.20%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 21.54%EV -11.30%E -2.72%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.37%EV -10.07%E -5.79%K -13.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -12.37%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.70%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -12.37%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -9.74%E -2.91%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-01 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -12.37%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.88%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -9.74%E -2.91%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-01 13:15
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.94%EV -12.37%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.81%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -11.09%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-01 13:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.84%EV -19.85%E -5.29%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.39%EV -12.14%E -7.14%K -17.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.27%G +0.000%16.7%2026-11-01 13:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-11-01 12:00
Matchbook◎3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.59%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%11.4%2026-11-01 11:45
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.87%13.9%2026-11-01 13:25