The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Napoli v Lazio

2026-11-08 11:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Napoli (Local)

Prediction 49.26%2.03fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.28%49.16%49.33%50.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.891.901.9856.82%52.90%52.63%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lazio (Visit)

Prediction 25.48%3.92fair odd
EV +1.93%
Edge +0.482%
Kelly +0.642%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.07%25.59%25.55%27.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.673.704.0031.25%27.24%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.26%3.96fair odd
EV +0.516%
Edge +0.130%
Kelly +0.173%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.95%25.25%25.12%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.673.653.9829.85%27.28%27.40%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Napoli (Local): 49.26%; Lazio (Visit): 25.48%; Draw: 25.26%. For Lazio (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -5.41%E -2.82%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +1.93%E +0.482%K +0.642%G +0.012%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.77%E -0.719%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -5.41%E -2.82%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +1.93%E +0.482%K +0.642%G +0.012%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.77%E -0.719%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -5.41%E -2.82%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +1.93%E +0.482%K +0.642%G +0.012%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.77%E -0.719%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -7.39%E -3.93%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV +0.652%E +0.165%K +0.221%G +0.001%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.35%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 11:40
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 49.78%EV -2.46%E -1.24%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 25.21%EV -0.367%E -0.094%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 25.02%EV -0.494%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000%1.5%2026-11-01 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -1.90%E -0.493%K -0.665%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -1.90%E -0.493%K -0.665%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -1.90%E -0.493%K -0.665%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -1.90%E -0.493%K -0.665%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.80%EV -5.41%E -2.82%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.16%EV -3.17%E -0.834%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.03%EV -3.53%E -0.923%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-01 12:45
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.91%E -3.09%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -3.17%E -0.834%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 12:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.40%E -3.37%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -3.17%E -0.834%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 12:35
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -5.91%E -3.09%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 12:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -6.40%E -3.37%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 12:45
Caesars🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.39%E -3.93%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 12:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -7.88%E -4.21%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-01 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 11:40
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -9.36%E -5.08%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -9.85%E -5.38%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 11:40
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -9.85%E -5.38%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.95%E -1.50%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-01 13:05
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.40%EV -5.41%E -2.82%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 12:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -6.40%E -3.37%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 12:35
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.88%E -4.21%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -4.92%E -2.55%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -11.61%E -3.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 13:04
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -4.92%E -2.55%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -11.61%E -3.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 13:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -10.34%E -5.68%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -10.34%E -2.91%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -10.34%E -5.68%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -10.34%E -2.91%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.91%E -3.09%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -6.99%E -1.92%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.68%EV -10.83%E -5.99%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -6.99%E -1.92%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.61%E -3.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-01 11:40
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -5.91%E -3.09%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.94%E -2.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -7.88%E -4.21%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 12:45
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -3.94%E -2.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -9.54%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-01 12:44
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.13%EV -4.43%E -2.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.92%EV -9.80%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.95%EV +0.516%E +0.130%K +0.173%G +0.001%4.9%2026-11-01 12:45
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -3.94%E -2.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.34%E -2.91%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 12:45
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -7.39%E -3.93%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 12:45
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.46%EV -6.40%E -3.37%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 12:45
picklebet_au🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -5.91%E -3.09%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.61%E -3.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 13:05
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -9.85%E -5.38%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-01 11:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.86%EV -13.30%E -7.55%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -11.61%E -3.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 13:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.57%EV -9.36%E -5.08%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.68%EV -11.32%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.75%EV -12.36%E -3.56%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 13:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.28%EV -6.40%E -3.37%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -12.09%E -3.50%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 13:05
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -3.94%E -2.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -3.94%E -2.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -3.94%E -2.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -3.94%E -2.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.62%EV -11.33%E -6.29%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%EV -18.46%E -5.77%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.59%EV -15.40%E -4.60%K -6.55%G +0.000%16.7%2026-11-01 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.04%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.0%2026-11-01 12:45
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 49.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%10.2%2026-11-01 11:45
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 47.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%13.5%2026-11-01 12:45