Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Napoli v Lazio

2026-11-08 11:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Napoli (Local)

Predicción 48.70%2.05momio equitativo
EV -2.59%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -2.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.96%48.76%48.63%50.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.901.912.0056.18%52.74%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lazio (Visitante)

Predicción 25.90%3.86momio equitativo
EV +3.58%
Ventaja +0.896%
Kelly +1.19%
Crecimiento +0.043%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.07%25.90%25.88%27.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.643.654.0031.75%27.45%27.40%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.40%3.94momio equitativo
EV +0.077%
Ventaja +0.020%
Kelly +0.026%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.35%25.34%25.48%26.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.663.653.9430.30%27.32%27.40%25.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Napoli (Local): 48.70%; Lazio (Visitante): 25.90%; Empate: 25.40%. Para Lazio (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.86. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.58%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.21%E -0.574%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.21%E -0.574%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.21%E -0.574%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -8.44%E -4.49%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV +2.29%E +0.579%K +0.776%G +0.018%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.35%EV -4.75%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 11:40
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 49.78%EV -3.57%E -1.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 25.21%EV +1.25%E +0.320%K +0.430%G +0.005%3.94I 25.38%NM 25.02%EV +0.077%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.5%2026-11-01 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -0.301%E -0.078%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -0.301%E -0.078%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -0.301%E -0.078%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -0.301%E -0.078%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.80%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.16%EV -1.60%E -0.420%K -0.570%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.03%EV -2.97%E -0.778%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-01 12:45
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -6.98%E -3.65%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -4.75%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 12:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.02%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 12:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -8.92%E -4.77%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-01 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 11:40
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -10.38%E -5.64%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -10.87%E -5.94%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 11:40
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -10.87%E -5.94%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 11:40
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.40%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 12:45
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.92%E -4.77%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
Caesars🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -8.44%E -4.49%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 13:28
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -11.36%E -6.24%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -9.83%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -11.36%E -6.24%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -9.83%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.84%EV -3.08%E -1.55%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 13:35
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -6.98%E -3.65%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.68%EV -11.85%E -6.54%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.10%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-01 11:40
Fanatics🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 13:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.02%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-01 13:25
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.98%E -3.65%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.75%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 13:18
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 13:21
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 13:15
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -8.92%E -4.77%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -6.02%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 12:45
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.62%EV -4.54%E -2.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -7.55%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.69%EV -1.96%E -0.506%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-01 13:25
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.83%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 13:45
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.46%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 12:45
picklebet_au🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -11.10%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 13:25
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.87%E -5.94%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-01 11:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.58%EV -13.31%E -7.48%K -17.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.21%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.21%EV -11.10%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 13:25
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -2.59%E -1.30%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -10.66%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.99%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 13:33
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.02%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -10.66%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.66%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -12.37%E -3.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-01 13:35
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.98%E -3.65%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 13:34
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -4.75%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 13:43
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 46.96%EV -11.36%E -6.24%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.13%EV -18.43%E -5.85%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.90%EV -16.18%E -4.90%K -7.03%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-01 13:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.04%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.0%2026-11-01 12:45
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%11.0%2026-11-01 13:50
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 47.06%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%13.6%2026-11-01 13:25