Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Napoli v Lazio

2026-11-08 11:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Résultat du match

49 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Napoli (Local)

Prévision 48.70%2.05cote équitable
EV -2.59%
Avantage -1.30%
Kelly -2.59%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.96%48.76%48.63%50.57%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.781.901.912.0056.18%52.74%52.36%50.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Lazio (Visiteur)

Prévision 25.90%3.86cote équitable
EV +3.58%
Avantage +0.896%
Kelly +1.19%
Croissance +0.043%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.07%25.90%25.88%27.53%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.153.643.654.0031.75%27.45%27.40%25.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 25.40%3.94cote équitable
EV +0.077%
Avantage +0.020%
Kelly +0.026%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.35%25.34%25.48%26.22%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.303.663.653.9430.30%27.32%27.40%25.38%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Pour Résultat du match, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estime les probabilités suivantes : Napoli (Local) : 48.70% ; Lazio (Visiteur) : 25.90% ; Match nul : 25.40%. Pour Lazio (Visiteur), cette estimation équivaut à une cote décimale juste de 3.86. 5 opérateurs proposent une cote supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure cote disponible est 4.00, pour une espérance positive de +3.58%.

Cotes des opérateurs (49 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.21%E -0.574%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.21%E -0.574%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -2.21%E -0.574%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -8.44%E -4.49%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV +2.29%E +0.579%K +0.776%G +0.018%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.35%EV -4.75%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 11:40
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 49.78%EV -3.57%E -1.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 25.21%EV +1.25%E +0.320%K +0.430%G +0.005%3.94I 25.38%NM 25.02%EV +0.077%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.5%2026-11-01 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -0.301%E -0.078%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -0.301%E -0.078%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -0.301%E -0.078%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -0.301%E -0.078%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.80%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.16%EV -1.60%E -0.420%K -0.570%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.03%EV -2.97%E -0.778%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-01 12:45
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -6.98%E -3.65%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -4.75%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 12:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.02%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 12:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -8.92%E -4.77%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-01 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 11:40
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -10.38%E -5.64%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -10.87%E -5.94%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 11:40
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -10.87%E -5.94%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 11:40
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.40%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 12:45
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.92%E -4.77%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
Caesars🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -8.44%E -4.49%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 13:28
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -11.36%E -6.24%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -9.83%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.89%EV -11.36%E -6.24%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -4.19%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -9.83%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.84%EV -3.08%E -1.55%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 13:35
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -6.98%E -3.65%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.68%EV -11.85%E -6.54%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.10%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-01 11:40
Fanatics🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 13:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.02%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-01 13:25
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.98%E -3.65%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.75%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:45
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 13:18
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 13:21
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 13:15
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -8.92%E -4.77%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -6.78%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -6.02%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 12:45
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.62%EV -4.54%E -2.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -7.55%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.69%EV -1.96%E -0.506%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-01 13:25
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.83%E -2.77%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 13:45
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.46%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 12:45
picklebet_au🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -11.10%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 13:25
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.87%E -5.94%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-01 11:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.58%EV -13.31%E -7.48%K -17.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.21%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.21%EV -11.10%E -3.17%K -4.44%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 13:25
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -2.59%E -1.30%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -10.66%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.99%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 13:33
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.02%EV -6.49%E -3.38%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -10.66%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -7.29%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.90%E -5.35%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.66%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -12.37%E -3.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-01 13:35
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.98%E -3.65%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -3.48%E -0.916%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 13:34
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -5.03%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.56%E -2.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 12:35
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -4.75%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 13:43
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 46.96%EV -11.36%E -6.24%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.13%EV -18.43%E -5.85%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.90%EV -16.18%E -4.90%K -7.03%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-01 13:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.04%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.0%2026-11-01 12:45
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%11.0%2026-11-01 13:50
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 47.06%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%13.6%2026-11-01 13:25