Language:English
Venezia v Modena
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Venezia (Local)
Prediction 60.40%1.66fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -9.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.01%60.32%60.58%63.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.511.531.5769.93%66.04%65.36%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Modena (Visit)
Prediction 16.76%5.97fair odd
EV +4.73%
Edge +0.757%
Kelly +0.901%
Growth +0.043%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.08%16.82%16.66%18.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.655.506.2520.00%17.68%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.84%4.38fair odd
EV -0.648%
Edge -0.149%
Kelly -0.194%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.59%22.86%22.76%23.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.114.104.3526.32%24.30%24.39%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Venezia (Local): 60.40%; Modena (Visit): 16.76%; Draw: 22.84%. For Modena (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.97. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.73%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -10.00%E -6.71%K -20.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +4.73%E +0.757%K +0.901%G +0.043% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -0.648%E -0.149%K -0.194%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -10.00%E -6.71%K -20.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +4.73%E +0.757%K +0.901%G +0.043% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -0.648%E -0.149%K -0.194%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -10.00%E -6.71%K -20.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +4.73%E +0.757%K +0.901%G +0.043% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -0.648%E -0.149%K -0.194%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -10.00%E -6.71%K -20.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +4.73%E +0.757%K +0.901%G +0.043% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -0.648%E -0.149%K -0.194%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -10.00%E -6.71%K -20.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +4.73%E +0.757%K +0.901%G +0.043% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -0.648%E -0.149%K -0.194%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.07%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.06I 16.50%NM 15.82%EV +1.55%E +0.255%K +0.306%G +0.005% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.10%EV -5.22%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 18:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV +0.542%E +0.090%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.07%E -0.970%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 13:13 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.36%EV -12.41%E -8.56%K -27.59%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.59%EV -2.81%E -0.484%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -6.36%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.36%EV -12.41%E -8.56%K -27.59%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.59%EV -2.81%E -0.484%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -6.36%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.36%EV -12.41%E -8.56%K -27.59%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.59%EV -2.81%E -0.484%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -6.36%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 62.68%EV -13.62%E -9.53%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.45%EV -2.81%E -0.484%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.86%EV -6.36%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 18:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -3.65%E -0.634%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -1.11%E -0.255%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 10:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -3.65%E -0.634%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.07%E -0.970%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -6.37%E -4.11%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -3.65%E -0.634%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -8.64%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.77%E -3.70%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.88%EV -6.16%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.07%E -0.970%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -6.37%E -4.11%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -4.07%E -0.970%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -5.17%E -3.29%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -8.64%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 18:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 18:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 18:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 18:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -9.39%E -6.26%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -6.36%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.39%E -6.26%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.64%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-15 18:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.39%E -6.26%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.84%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.64%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-15 18:33 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.57%EV -6.98%E -4.53%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 17.84%EV -12.36%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.59%EV -1.33%E -0.309%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 18:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.66%EV -6.37%E -4.11%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -12.86%E -2.47%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -6.36%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -7.58%E -4.96%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -16.21%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -4.07%E -0.970%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.03%EV -8.19%E -5.39%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -16.21%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -4.07%E -0.970%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 18:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.01%EV -9.39%E -6.26%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -16.21%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -13.21%E -3.48%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.25% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.37% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38% | 1.8% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |