The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Venezia v Modena

2026-08-15 18:45 UTC — Coppa Italia

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Venezia (Local)

Prediction 62.13%1.61fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -3.23%
Kelly -9.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.69%62.14%61.93%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.491.5369.93%67.42%67.11%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Modena (Visit)

Prediction 15.90%6.29fair odd
EV +3.38%
Edge +0.520%
Kelly +0.615%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.63%15.87%16.15%17.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.895.996.5018.87%16.98%16.69%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.96%4.55fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -0.765%
Kelly -0.990%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%21.99%21.92%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.234.254.4025.00%23.65%23.53%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Venezia (Local): 62.13%; Modena (Visit): 15.90%; Draw: 21.96%. For Modena (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.29. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.50, producing a positive expected value of +3.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.40%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV +3.38%E +0.520%K +0.615%G +0.021%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.96%EV -4.90%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 03:48
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -7.42%E -4.98%K -15.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -0.594%E -0.095%K -0.113%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -3.37%E -0.765%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 03:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -7.42%E -4.98%K -15.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -0.594%E -0.095%K -0.113%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -3.37%E -0.765%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 03:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -7.42%E -4.98%K -15.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -0.594%E -0.095%K -0.113%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -3.37%E -0.765%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 03:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -7.42%E -4.98%K -15.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -0.594%E -0.095%K -0.113%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -3.37%E -0.765%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 03:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -7.42%E -4.98%K -15.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -0.594%E -0.095%K -0.113%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -3.37%E -0.765%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 03:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -9.91%E -6.83%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.81%EV -1.39%E -0.224%K -0.267%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%EV -7.76%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 03:50
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.07%EV -7.42%E -4.98%K -15.15%G +0.000%6.11I 16.37%NM 15.38%EV -2.82%E -0.462%K -0.552%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.55%EV -4.25%E -0.974%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 03:50
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -4.94%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.57%E -0.762%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.97%EV -4.90%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 03:49
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -4.57%E -0.762%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -4.90%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 03:53
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -8.04%E -5.43%K -16.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -4.57%E -0.762%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -4.90%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 07:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.11%EV -8.66%E -5.89%K -18.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -4.57%E -0.762%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.43%EV -4.90%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 03:49
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.02%EV -9.29%E -6.36%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -4.57%E -0.762%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -6.66%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 03:49
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.68%EV -9.91%E -6.83%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -4.57%E -0.762%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -9.96%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 03:48
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.68%EV -9.91%E -6.83%K -22.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -4.57%E -0.762%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -9.96%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 03:49
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.53%EV -7.42%E -4.98%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.99I 16.69%NM 15.55%EV -4.73%E -0.790%K -0.948%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -6.66%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 03:48
Codere (IT)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.56%E -3.66%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.22%EV -7.75%E -1.34%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.56%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 03:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.69%EV -9.91%E -6.83%K -22.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.67%EV -7.75%E -1.34%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -7.76%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 03:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.69%EV -9.91%E -6.83%K -22.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.67%EV -7.75%E -1.34%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -7.76%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 03:49
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.85%EV -10.53%E -7.31%K -23.93%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.60%EV -7.75%E -1.34%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.76%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-14 03:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -4.94%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -8.55%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -4.90%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 03:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -5.56%E -3.66%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -8.55%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -6.66%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 03:48
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.80%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -8.55%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -7.76%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 03:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.60%EV -11.15%E -7.80%K -25.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.57%EV -8.55%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%EV -9.96%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 03:49
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.52%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.76%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 03:53
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -12.52%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 03:49
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -12.52%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 03:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -12.52%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 03:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -12.52%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 03:50
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.53%E -7.31%K -23.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.52%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-14 03:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.29%EV -8.04%E -5.43%K -16.76%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.11%EV -15.70%E -2.96%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -7.76%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 03:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 63.56%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.11%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%4.2%2026-08-14 07:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 63.56%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.11%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%4.2%2026-08-14 07:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 63.56%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.11%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%4.2%2026-08-14 07:45

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