Language:English
Udinese v Padova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Udinese (Local)
Prediction 69.93%1.43fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -9.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.03%69.84%69.82%71.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.331.341.3877.52%75.01%74.63%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Padova (Visit)
Prediction 10.54%9.49fair odd
EV +8.16%
Edge +0.796%
Kelly +0.882%
Growth +0.072%
assuming max odds 10.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.26%10.54%10.68%12.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.598.5010.2613.33%11.64%11.76%9.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.53%5.12fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.471%
Kelly -0.588%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.51%19.61%19.50%20.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.464.734.755.0022.42%21.13%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Udinese (Local): 69.93%; Padova (Visit): 10.54%; Draw: 19.53%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.49. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.96%EV -4.20%E -3.06%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 10.26I 9.75%NM 9.34%EV +8.16%E +0.796%K +0.882%G +0.072% | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.70%EV -9.58%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 16:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +5.42%E +0.542%K +0.603%G +0.033% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +5.42%E +0.542%K +0.603%G +0.033% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 16:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.75%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV +0.152%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -8.21%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 16:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.05%EV -9.79%E -7.59%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV +0.152%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.61%EV -9.79%E -7.59%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV +0.152%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-15 16:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.16%EV -5.60%E -4.15%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 9.42I 10.62%NM 9.91%EV -0.691%E -0.073%K -0.082%G +0.000% | 4.46I 22.42%NM 20.93%EV -12.90%E -2.89%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 23:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 16:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 16:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 16:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.08%EV -5.60%E -4.15%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.00%EV -9.34%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.83%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 12:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.99%EV -5.60%E -4.15%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 12:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:28 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.50%E -2.54%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -6.26%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -6.26%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 12:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.35%EV -8.39%E -6.41%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.54%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.06% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.36% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.05% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.05% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 16:20 |