Idioma:Español
Udinese v Padova
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Udinese (Local)
Predicción 69.93%1.43momio equitativo
EV -3.50%
Ventaja -2.54%
Kelly -9.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.03%69.84%69.82%71.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.291.331.341.3877.52%75.01%74.63%72.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Padova (Visitante)
Predicción 10.54%9.49momio equitativo
EV +8.16%
Ventaja +0.796%
Kelly +0.882%
Crecimiento +0.072%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.26
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.26%10.54%10.68%12.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.508.598.5010.2613.33%11.64%11.76%9.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 19.53%5.12momio equitativo
EV -2.35%
Ventaja -0.471%
Kelly -0.588%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.51%19.61%19.50%20.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.464.734.755.0022.42%21.13%21.05%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Udinese (Local): 69.93%; Padova (Visitante): 10.54%; Empate: 19.53%. Para Padova (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 9.49. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 10.26, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.16%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.96%EV -4.20%E -3.06%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 10.26I 9.75%NM 9.34%EV +8.16%E +0.796%K +0.882%G +0.072% | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.70%EV -9.58%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 16:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +5.42%E +0.542%K +0.603%G +0.033% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +5.42%E +0.542%K +0.603%G +0.033% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 16:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.75%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV +0.152%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -8.21%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 16:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.05%EV -9.79%E -7.59%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV +0.152%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.61%EV -9.79%E -7.59%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV +0.152%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-15 16:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.16%EV -5.60%E -4.15%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 9.42I 10.62%NM 9.91%EV -0.691%E -0.073%K -0.082%G +0.000% | 4.46I 22.42%NM 20.93%EV -12.90%E -2.89%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 23:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 16:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 16:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -5.12%E -0.569%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 16:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.08%EV -5.60%E -4.15%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.00%EV -9.34%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.83%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 12:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.99%EV -5.60%E -4.15%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 12:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -2.35%E -0.471%K -0.588%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -10.39%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:28 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.50%E -2.54%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -6.26%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -4.90%E -3.60%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -15.66%E -1.96%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -6.26%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 12:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -6.30%E -4.70%K -18.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.35%EV -8.39%E -6.41%K -27.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.54%EV -4.31%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -9.09%E -6.99%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -20.93%E -2.79%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-15 16:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.06% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.36% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.05% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.05% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.98% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 16:20 |