Language:English
PAOK Thessaloniki v AEK Athens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)
Prediction 49.48%2.02fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -4.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.62%49.50%49.30%51.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.841.831.9358.48%54.49%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AEK Athens (Visit)
Prediction 23.60%4.24fair odd
EV +0.307%
Edge +0.072%
Kelly +0.094%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%23.66%23.66%25.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.933.904.2528.57%25.47%25.64%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.92%3.71fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.476%
Kelly -0.656%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%26.84%27.04%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.403.6533.33%29.60%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PAOK Thessaloniki (Local): 49.48%; AEK Athens (Visit): 23.60%; Draw: 26.92%. For AEK Athens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.307%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV +0.307%E +0.072%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV +0.307%E +0.072%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV +0.307%E +0.072%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV +0.307%E +0.072%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV +0.307%E +0.072%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV +0.307%E +0.072%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV +0.307%E +0.072%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV +0.307%E +0.072%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.99%E -3.15%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.46%EV -0.165%E -0.039%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -7.12%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 16:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.08%EV -7.48%E -4.00%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -0.873%E -0.208%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 27.62%EV -8.74%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-13 15:42 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.29%EV -12.42%E -7.02%K -16.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -0.873%E -0.208%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -9.81%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.29%EV -12.42%E -7.02%K -16.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -0.873%E -0.208%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -9.81%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.29%EV -12.42%E -7.02%K -16.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -0.873%E -0.208%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -9.81%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.57%EV -13.41%E -7.67%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -0.873%E -0.208%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -9.81%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -8.47%E -4.58%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -3.23%E -0.789%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -1.74%E -0.476%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -8.47%E -4.58%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -3.23%E -0.789%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -1.74%E -0.476%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.46%EV -15.39%E -9.00%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.46%EV -3.23%E -0.789%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.08%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.50%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.59%E -1.40%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-13 15:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.47%E -4.58%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -5.59%E -1.40%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-13 16:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -9.46%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -5.59%E -1.40%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-13 16:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -9.46%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -5.59%E -1.40%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-13 14:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.02%EV -5.99%E -3.15%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -6.77%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-13 15:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.02%EV -5.99%E -3.15%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -6.77%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-13 15:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -5.50%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.95%E -2.04%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -7.12%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.50%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.95%E -2.04%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-13 15:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -7.48%E -4.00%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -7.95%E -2.04%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -7.48%E -4.00%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -7.95%E -2.04%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 16:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.46%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -7.95%E -2.04%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-13 16:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.29%EV -7.97%E -4.29%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.31%E -2.71%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -7.12%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-13 16:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -10.31%E -2.71%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -11.16%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-13 16:06 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -9.46%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -11.49%E -3.07%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-13 16:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.17%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -11.49%E -3.07%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.51%EV -4.51%E -2.34%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.04%EV -11.73%E -3.14%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.45%EV -4.70%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.50%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-13 16:16 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.50%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-13 16:16 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.50%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-13 16:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.50%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-13 16:16 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -8.47%E -4.58%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-13 16:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.47%E -4.58%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.47%E -4.58%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.47%E -4.58%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.47%E -4.58%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.02%EV -9.95%E -5.47%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.11%EV -12.67%E -3.43%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 26.87%EV -10.62%E -3.20%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-13 16:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.00%EV -7.97%E -4.29%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -13.85%E -3.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 49.41%EV -12.92%E -7.34%K -17.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.83%EV -13.85%E -3.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.76%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-13 16:01 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.43%EV -14.40%E -8.33%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.43%EV -13.85%E -3.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.15%EV -15.20%E -4.83%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-05-13 16:16 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -15.03%E -4.18%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -16.55%E -5.34%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.62%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -15.03%E -4.18%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -19.24%E -6.41%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-05-13 16:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.74%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -17.39%E -4.97%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -9.81%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-13 15:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.11% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82% | 0.8% | 2026-05-13 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.11% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82% | 0.8% | 2026-05-13 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.24% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75% | 1.0% | 2026-05-13 16:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.09% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.53% | 1.9% | 2026-05-13 16:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-05-13 16:20 |