Language:English
AEL v Asteras Tripolis
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AEL (Local)
Prediction 35.58%2.81fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.77%35.49%35.46%36.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.592.602.7341.67%38.55%38.46%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Asteras Tripolis (Visit)
Prediction 33.93%2.95fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.17%34.00%33.99%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.672.672.8439.22%37.39%37.52%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.50%3.28fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.57%30.51%30.55%31.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.993.003.1536.36%33.44%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AEL (Local): 35.58%; Asteras Tripolis (Visit): 33.93%; Draw: 30.50%. For AEL (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.73, with an expected value of -2.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.28%EV -2.88%E -1.05%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.04%EV -3.99%E -1.41%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.68%EV -4.24%E -1.35%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -3.95%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -10.09%E -3.81%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -3.95%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -11.11%E -4.24%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -3.95%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -11.11%E -4.24%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -3.95%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -11.11%E -4.24%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -3.95%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -11.11%E -4.24%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.42%EV -5.37%E -2.02%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.42%EV -5.37%E -2.02%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -3.65%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.87%EV -5.73%E -2.16%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.95%EV -5.01%E -1.79%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.18%EV -3.93%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 13:58 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.73%E -2.16%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.01%E -1.79%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -5.73%E -2.16%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -5.01%E -1.79%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -5.73%E -2.16%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -6.70%E -2.44%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -5.73%E -2.16%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-09 13:57 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -5.73%E -2.16%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -6.79%E -2.59%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -11.11%E -4.24%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.57%EV -4.85%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.68%EV -6.79%E -2.59%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.66%EV -12.47%E -4.35%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -6.70%E -2.44%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.63%EV -10.09%E -3.81%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.89%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.60%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.50%EV -12.17%E -4.22%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -11.79%E -4.53%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -11.79%E -4.53%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -11.79%E -4.53%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -11.79%E -4.53%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.50%E -2.89%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -11.79%E -4.53%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.28%E -3.64%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -10.09%E -3.81%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.28%E -3.64%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -10.09%E -3.81%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.28%E -3.64%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -10.09%E -3.81%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -9.28%E -3.64%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -10.09%E -3.81%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.06%E -4.42%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.40%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.92%EV -11.06%E -4.42%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.15%EV -10.77%E -4.10%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -11.06%E -4.42%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -11.79%E -4.53%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -16.13%E -5.87%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.83%EV -12.84%E -5.24%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -13.49%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.83%EV -12.84%E -5.24%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -13.49%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.70%EV -13.55%E -5.58%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 33.28%EV -9.08%E -3.39%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 30.03%EV -9.42%E -3.17%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-09 13:57 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 35.35%EV -13.91%E -5.75%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 33.55%EV -13.49%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.11%EV -16.13%E -5.87%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.45%EV -14.62%E -6.09%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.39%EV -11.11%E -4.24%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.56%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-09 13:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.03% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36% | 1.2% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.03% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36% | 1.2% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.03% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36% | 1.2% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.02% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.35% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.63% | 2.0% | 2026-05-09 13:59 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.61% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.75% | 3.9% | 2026-05-09 14:00 |