Language:English
VfB Stuttgart II v Erzgebirge Aue
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
VfB Stuttgart II (Local)
Prediction 52.37%1.91fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -6.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.07%52.48%52.45%56.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.731.8161.73%58.70%57.97%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Erzgebirge Aue (Visit)
Prediction 25.27%3.96fair odd
EV +7.42%
Edge +1.75%
Kelly +2.28%
Growth +0.169%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.53%25.15%25.29%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.773.674.2531.25%26.50%27.21%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.36%4.47fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -0.735%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.22%22.38%22.26%25.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.974.104.3330.77%25.19%24.39%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart II (Local): 52.37%; Erzgebirge Aue (Visit): 25.27%; Draw: 22.36%. For Erzgebirge Aue (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.42%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.15%EV -14.64%E -8.98%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV +7.42%E +1.75%K +2.28%G +0.169% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-19 13:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-19 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.36%EV -9.93%E -5.77%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV +1.10%E +0.275%K +0.366%G +0.004% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 14:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.36%EV -8.88%E -5.11%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -3.96%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -13.92%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-19 14:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.59%EV -5.22%E -2.88%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.32%EV -4.97%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.09%EV -3.63%E -0.843%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 14:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.22%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.79%E -3.81%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.91%EV -7.31%E -4.13%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -11.68%E -2.96%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 53.21%EV -11.50%E -6.81%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-19 14:17 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -10.98%E -6.46%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -15.03%E -3.96%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.71%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -7.75%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -13.92%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.22%E -2.88%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.22%E -2.88%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 14:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -9.41%E -5.44%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 52.69%EV -13.07%E -7.87%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.02%EV -15.03%E -3.96%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -3.18%E -0.735%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 14:10 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.76%EV -7.84%E -4.45%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.80%E -3.28%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.80%E -3.28%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-19 14:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.80%E -3.28%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-19 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.52%EV -12.55%E -7.51%K -18.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -19.51%E -5.42%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 50.99%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.60%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.41%EV -27.33%E -8.41%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 21.1% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 50.07%EV -12.55%E -7.51%K -18.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.34%EV -16.59%E -5.03%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.59%EV -23.98%E -7.05%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 19.6% | 2026-04-19 14:23 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 50.99%EV -12.55%E -7.51%K -18.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.61%EV -19.12%E -5.98%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.41%EV -15.03%E -3.96%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.70% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33% | 1.8% | 2026-04-19 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.70% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33% | 1.8% | 2026-04-19 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.70% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33% | 1.8% | 2026-04-19 14:20 |