L’École des cotes

VfB Stuttgart II v Erzgebirge Aue

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-19 14:30 UTC

Score final : VfB Stuttgart II 2–2 Erzgebirge Aue

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

38 opérateurs (9 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

VfB Stuttgart II (Local)

Prévision 52.37%1.91cote équitable
EV -5.22%
Avantage -2.88%
Kelly -6.44%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.81

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.07%52.48%52.45%56.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.621.701.731.8161.73%58.70%57.97%55.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Erzgebirge Aue (Visiteur)

Prévision 25.27%3.96cote équitable
EV +7.42%
Avantage +1.75%
Kelly +2.28%
Croissance +0.169%

avec la cote maximale 4.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.53%25.15%25.29%26.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.773.674.2531.25%26.50%27.21%23.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 22.36%4.47cote équitable
EV -3.18%
Avantage -0.735%
Kelly -0.956%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.33

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.22%22.38%22.26%25.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.974.104.3330.77%25.19%24.39%23.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (38 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 56.15%EV -14.64%E -8.98%K -23.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV +7.42%E +1.75%K +2.28%G +0.169%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 13:45
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
Unibet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:05
Unibet (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
TABtouch1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
Grosvenor1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
Casumo1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
Svenska Spel1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
ATG (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV +6.15%E +1.47%K +1.92%G +0.118%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:00
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.36%EV -9.93%E -5.77%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV +1.10%E +0.275%K +0.366%G +0.004%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 14:20
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 52.36%EV -8.88%E -5.11%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -3.96%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -13.92%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 14:25
Pinnacle1.81I 55.25%NM 52.59%EV -5.22%E -2.88%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.32%EV -4.97%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.09%EV -3.63%E -0.843%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 14:20
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.22%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 14:15
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.79%E -3.81%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 14:15
Codere (IT)1.77I 56.50%NM 51.91%EV -7.31%E -4.13%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -11.68%E -2.96%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 14:15
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 53.21%EV -11.50%E -6.81%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-19 14:17
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 52.44%EV -10.98%E -6.46%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -6.48%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -15.03%E -3.96%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-19 14:15
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 51.71%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -7.75%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -13.92%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-19 14:15
LowVig.ag1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.22%E -2.88%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:15
BetOnline.ag1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.22%E -2.88%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:15
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.74%E -3.19%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 14:25
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -9.41%E -5.44%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-19 14:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 14:15
Neds1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 14:15
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 14:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.15%E -4.31%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 14:15
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 52.69%EV -13.07%E -7.87%K -19.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -9.01%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.02%EV -15.03%E -3.96%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-19 14:15
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -3.18%E -0.735%K -0.956%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 14:10
Suprabets1.76I 56.82%NM 51.76%EV -7.84%E -4.45%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 14:15
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.80%E -3.28%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-19 14:15
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.80%E -3.28%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-19 14:20
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -8.36%E -4.78%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.80%E -3.28%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-19 14:20
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 51.52%EV -12.55%E -7.51%K -18.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -19.51%E -5.42%K -7.50%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-19 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 50.99%EV -15.17%E -9.36%K -24.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.60%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.41%EV -27.33%E -8.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%21.1%2026-04-19 14:15
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 50.07%EV -12.55%E -7.51%K -18.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.34%EV -16.59%E -5.03%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.59%EV -23.98%E -7.05%K -9.99%G +0.000%19.6%2026-04-19 14:23
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 50.99%EV -12.55%E -7.51%K -18.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.61%EV -19.12%E -5.98%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.41%EV -15.03%E -3.96%K -5.37%G +0.000%17.4%2026-04-19 14:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 53.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%1.8%2026-04-19 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 53.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%1.8%2026-04-19 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.83I 54.64%NM 53.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%1.8%2026-04-19 14:20