Language:English
Rot-Weiss Essen v FC Ingolstadt 04
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)
Prediction 57.31%1.74fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.33%57.26%57.33%58.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.621.621.6866.67%61.81%61.92%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Ingolstadt 04 (Visit)
Prediction 20.98%4.77fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -0.759%
Kelly -0.969%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.32%21.02%20.87%23.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.134.104.6026.67%24.21%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.71%4.61fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.663%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.48%21.72%21.80%23.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.104.104.5028.57%24.41%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 57.31%; FC Ingolstadt 04 (Visit): 20.98%; Draw: 21.71%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -2.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -3.71%E -2.21%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.71%EV -5.43%E -3.29%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.84%EV -4.12%E -0.901%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.45%EV -3.62%E -0.816%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 11:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -5.43%E -3.29%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.59%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -11.00%E -2.68%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -7.15%E -4.42%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -9.78%E -2.28%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -4.49%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 11:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.30%EV -7.15%E -4.42%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.86%EV -6.64%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -7.75%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 11:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.30%EV -7.15%E -4.42%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.86%EV -6.64%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -7.75%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 11:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -7.15%E -4.42%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -7.69%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -7.75%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 11:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.93%EV -7.15%E -4.42%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -16.08%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -15.34%E -3.93%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-11 10:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.93%EV -7.15%E -4.42%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -16.08%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -15.34%E -3.93%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-11 10:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.89%EV -7.73%E -4.80%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%EV -9.78%E -2.28%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -8.83%E -2.10%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.46%EV -7.73%E -4.80%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 21.59%EV -11.67%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 21.95%EV -10.13%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.46%EV -7.73%E -4.80%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 21.59%EV -11.67%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 21.95%EV -10.13%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-11 11:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.00%EV -7.73%E -4.80%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.17%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-11 10:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.00%EV -7.73%E -4.80%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.17%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-11 10:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.00%EV -7.73%E -4.80%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.17%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-11 10:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.09%EV -7.73%E -4.80%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.17%EV -16.08%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -15.34%E -3.93%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-11 10:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.09%EV -7.73%E -4.80%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.17%EV -16.08%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -15.34%E -3.93%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-11 10:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.43%EV -8.30%E -5.19%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -3.49%E -0.759%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -4.49%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 10:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.88%EV -8.30%E -5.19%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -5.59%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -6.66%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 11:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -8.30%E -5.19%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -2.32%E -0.515%K -0.663%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 11:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -8.30%E -5.19%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.19%EV -10.83%E -2.55%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -13.17%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-11 11:30 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -9.45%E -5.98%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -9.78%E -2.28%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -6.66%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 11:22 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.94%EV -10.59%E -6.79%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -7.69%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -8.83%E -2.10%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-11 11:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 55.53%EV -11.17%E -7.20%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95%EV -21.32%E -5.69%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.52%EV -13.17%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-11 11:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.22%EV -12.31%E -8.05%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -9.15%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -8.83%E -2.10%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-11 11:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.34%EV -12.31%E -8.05%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.55%EV -16.08%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.10%EV -15.34%E -3.93%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-04-11 11:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.73%EV -14.03%E -9.35%K -28.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.65%EV -13.17%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-04-11 11:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 55.52%EV -14.03%E -9.35%K -28.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 21.35%EV -18.18%E -4.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.13%EV -21.86%E -6.07%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 20.1% | 2026-04-11 11:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 55.45%EV -14.03%E -9.35%K -28.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 20.79%EV -16.08%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.76%EV -24.03%E -6.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-04-11 11:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.20% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.20% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.20% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:55 |