The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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MSV Duisburg v SV Meppen

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 12:03 UTC

Final: MSV Duisburg 3–0 SV Meppen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MSV Duisburg (Local)

Prediction 62.18%1.61fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -3.18%
Kelly -9.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.36%62.17%62.29%64.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.451.451.5373.53%68.75%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SV Meppen (Visit)

Prediction 16.14%6.19fair odd
EV +6.22%
Edge +0.946%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 6.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.40%16.18%16.04%18.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.395.206.5821.74%18.55%19.23%15.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.67%4.61fair odd
EV +4.04%
Edge +0.841%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.57%21.65%21.67%23.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.304.304.8026.67%23.25%23.26%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 62.18%; SV Meppen (Visit): 16.14%; Draw: 21.67%. For SV Meppen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.19. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.76%EV -6.10%E -4.04%K -11.97%G +0.000%6.58I 15.20%NM 14.40%EV +6.22%E +0.946%K +1.12%G +0.069%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.84%EV -10.05%E -2.42%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 11:45
Suprabets🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.23%EV -9.21%E -6.31%K -20.03%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.42%EV +1.70%E +0.270%K +0.321%G +0.005%3.89I 25.71%NM 23.35%EV -15.69%E -4.03%K -5.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -6.73%E -4.48%K -13.45%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV +0.088%E +0.014%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -11.13%E -2.72%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 11:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -6.10%E -4.04%K -11.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -3.14%E -0.524%K -0.628%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -11.13%E -2.72%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 11:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -8.59%E -5.85%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -6.37%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 11:55
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.48%EV -15.43%E -11.35%K -42.87%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.12%EV -6.37%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.40%EV -6.80%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-08 11:40
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.20%EV -8.59%E -5.85%K -18.28%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -7.18%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -2.46%E -0.548%K -0.704%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 11:50
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.73%E -4.48%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -7.18%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.30%E -3.33%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 11:54
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.00%EV -11.70%E -8.24%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.81%EV -7.18%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -2.46%E -0.548%K -0.704%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 11:50
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.20%EV -4.86%E -3.18%K -9.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -11.21%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -6.80%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 11:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -7.97%E -5.39%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -11.21%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -2.46%E -0.548%K -0.704%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 11:48
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -11.21%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -8.97%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-08 11:50
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -12.94%E -9.25%K -32.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -11.21%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -8.97%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-08 11:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -12.94%E -9.25%K -32.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -11.21%E -2.04%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -8.97%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-08 11:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.04%EV -7.35%E -4.93%K -15.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -12.83%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV +4.04%E +0.841%K +1.06%G +0.043%6.5%2026-08-08 11:50
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -7.97%E -5.39%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -15.25%E -2.90%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -8.97%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:50
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.85%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.69%EV -15.25%E -2.90%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -15.47%E -3.97%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-08 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.73%EV -9.84%E -6.78%K -21.86%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 11:19
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.73%EV -9.84%E -6.78%K -21.86%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 11:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.73%EV -9.84%E -6.78%K -21.86%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 11:19
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:20
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:19
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -10.46%E -7.26%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -0.296%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 11:20
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.77%EV -7.97%E -5.39%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.30%EV -16.06%E -3.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.94%EV -11.13%E -2.72%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 11:49
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -6.73%E -4.48%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -19.28%E -3.86%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -15.47%E -3.97%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 11:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -6.73%E -4.48%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -19.28%E -3.86%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -15.47%E -3.97%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -6.73%E -4.48%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -19.28%E -3.86%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -15.47%E -3.97%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 11:50
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.42%EV -12.94%E -9.25%K -32.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.10%EV -23.32%E -4.91%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -8.97%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-08 11:54
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 59.61%EV -12.94%E -9.25%K -32.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.14%EV -25.74%E -5.60%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -18.72%E -4.99%K -6.81%G +0.000%19.8%2026-08-08 11:50
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 59.61%EV -12.94%E -9.25%K -32.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.14%EV -25.74%E -5.60%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -18.72%E -4.99%K -6.81%G +0.000%19.8%2026-08-08 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.78%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-08-08 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.49%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.51%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%1.3%2026-08-08 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.49%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.51%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%1.3%2026-08-08 11:55

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