Language:English
Jahn Regensburg v Erzgebirge Aue
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jahn Regensburg (Local)
Prediction 49.12%2.04fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.40%49.41%49.02%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.881.881.9657.80%53.27%53.19%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Erzgebirge Aue (Visit)
Prediction 26.04%3.84fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.396%
Kelly +0.532%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.00%25.83%26.06%28.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.403.9031.25%29.24%29.41%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV -0.613%
Edge -0.153%
Kelly -0.204%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.23%24.76%24.93%26.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.613.554.0032.26%27.73%28.17%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jahn Regensburg (Local): 49.12%; Erzgebirge Aue (Visit): 26.04%; Draw: 24.85%. For Erzgebirge Aue (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -11.59%E -6.44%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +1.54%E +0.396%K +0.532%G +0.008% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -3.10%E -0.794%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-07 16:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.62%EV -7.66%E -4.07%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 24.98%EV -0.800%E -0.210%K -0.285%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -3.10%E -0.794%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -7.66%E -4.07%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.35%EV -2.36%E -0.630%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -1.86%E -0.470%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 16:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -7.66%E -4.07%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.35%EV -2.36%E -0.630%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -1.86%E -0.470%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 16:30 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.00%EV -10.61%E -5.83%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -4.97%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.07%EV -9.81%E -2.70%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-07 16:32 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 16:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.64%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.57%E -2.13%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 16:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.64%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.57%E -2.13%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 16:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -7.66%E -4.07%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.57%E -2.13%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -9.31%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-07 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -0.613%E -0.153%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-07 16:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -6.68%E -3.52%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.82%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-07 14:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -7.66%E -4.07%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-07 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.19%E -3.24%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-07 15:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.57%EV -10.12%E -5.53%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-07 15:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-07 16:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-07 15:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -8.87%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-07 16:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -10.12%E -5.53%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-07 16:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -10.12%E -5.53%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -8.07%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-07 16:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-07 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-07 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-07 14:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.13%E -4.94%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-07 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.89%EV -11.59%E -6.44%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -14.08%E -4.27%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-07 16:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.55%EV -11.59%E -6.44%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -14.08%E -4.27%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.97%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-07 15:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.57%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.55%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.40%EV -3.73%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -4.22%E -2.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.38%E -4.73%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -11.79%E -3.32%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-07 16:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.15%EV -11.59%E -6.44%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -16.68%E -5.21%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -13.04%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-07 16:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 48.24%EV -15.03%E -8.69%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.08%EV -16.68%E -5.21%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.68%EV -19.25%E -5.92%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-04-07 16:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 47.65%EV -15.03%E -8.69%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 25.76%EV -16.68%E -5.21%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.59%EV -22.97%E -7.41%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 21.3% | 2026-04-07 16:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70% | 1.2% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70% | 1.2% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70% | 1.2% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |