Language:English
Erzgebirge Aue v Alemannia Aachen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Erzgebirge Aue (Local)
Prediction 35.76%2.80fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.26%35.65%35.77%38.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.492.502.7042.02%40.18%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alemannia Aachen (Visit)
Prediction 37.28%2.68fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.00%37.41%37.21%38.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.482.452.6044.44%40.38%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.96%3.71fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.03%26.94%27.03%28.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.363.403.5634.72%29.74%29.41%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Erzgebirge Aue (Local): 35.76%; Alemannia Aachen (Visit): 37.28%; Draw: 26.96%. For Alemannia Aachen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -3.08%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -3.45%E -1.28%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.03%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.15%EV -4.20%E -1.63%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.82%EV -4.01%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -5.63%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -12.40%E -5.28%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -9.67%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.81%E -2.72%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.02%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -11.28%E -4.74%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.73%EV -7.74%E -3.00%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.17%EV -7.55%E -3.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.73%EV -7.74%E -3.00%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.17%EV -7.55%E -3.05%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -4.28%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 35.93%EV -9.53%E -3.77%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 26.97%EV -9.13%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-07 12:46 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.54%E -4.39%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.86%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.73%EV -16.13%E -7.17%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.41%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -12.39%E -5.06%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -12.39%E -5.06%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -12.39%E -5.06%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -8.67%E -3.54%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.62%EV -12.39%E -5.06%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.94%EV -14.26%E -6.20%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.44%EV -11.02%E -3.34%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.33%EV -12.39%E -5.06%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -14.26%E -6.20%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.05%EV -13.72%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -14.18%E -5.91%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-02 14:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 34.76%EV -14.18%E -5.91%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 36.27%EV -14.26%E -6.20%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.97%EV -22.35%E -7.76%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 19.9% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -3.08%E -1.19%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.32%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 12:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 35.07%EV -14.89%E -6.26%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.10%EV -16.13%E -7.17%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.83%EV -19.11%E -6.37%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-03-07 12:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.79% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.33% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.88% | 1.9% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.66% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.18% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.15% | 2.3% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.66% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.18% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.15% | 2.3% | 2026-03-07 12:50 |