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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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VfL Wolfsburg v SV Darmstadt 98

Inicio: 2026-09-18 16:30 UTC

Final: VfL Wolfsburg 5–1 SV Darmstadt 98

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfL Wolfsburg (Local)

Predicción 63.69%1.57momio equitativo
EV -0.007%
Ventaja -0.004%
Kelly -0.012%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.85%63.68%63.68%65.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.461.461.5771.43%68.40%68.73%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante)

Predicción 16.49%6.07momio equitativo
EV +3.04%
Ventaja +0.486%
Kelly +0.579%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.23%16.47%16.45%18.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.515.506.2520.00%18.15%18.18%16.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.82%5.04momio equitativo
EV -2.07%
Ventaja -0.419%
Kelly -0.526%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.08%19.85%19.87%21.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.254.554.504.9423.53%22.00%22.22%20.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 63.69%; SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante): 16.49%; Empate: 19.82%. Para SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.07. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.04%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV +3.04%E +0.486%K +0.579%G +0.018%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.84%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 13:05
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.40%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.02I 16.61%NM 16.05%EV -0.751%E -0.125%K -0.150%G +0.000%4.94I 20.24%NM 19.55%EV -2.07%E -0.419%K -0.526%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-18 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.04%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -1.08%E -0.180%K -0.216%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -2.86%E -0.584%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 12:45
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.67%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -1.08%E -0.180%K -0.216%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -6.83%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 15:24
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.31%EV -10.83%E -7.74%K -27.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -1.08%E -0.180%K -0.216%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -6.83%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.98%EV -5.10%E -3.42%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.16%EV -2.73%E -0.463%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -4.85%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-18 12:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.98%EV -5.10%E -3.42%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.16%EV -2.73%E -0.463%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -4.85%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-18 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -5.20%E -0.905%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -5.84%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 14:25
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -5.20%E -0.905%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -5.84%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 10:34
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.20%E -0.905%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -5.84%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 14:44
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.20%E -0.905%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -5.84%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 14:45
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.74%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -5.20%E -0.905%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -12.78%E -2.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 15:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.37%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -5.20%E -0.905%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -5.84%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 09:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -5.20%E -0.905%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -8.81%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 13:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.69%EV -7.01%E -4.80%K -15.25%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.31%EV -6.03%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.00%EV -7.82%E -1.68%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 15:24
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.16%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.66I 17.67%NM 16.52%EV -6.69%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -8.81%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 14:53
Codere (IT)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.59%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -4.85%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 14:45
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:39
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:40
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:40
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -7.68%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:40
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -4.85%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 14:50
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.24%EV -5.10%E -3.42%K -10.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -4.85%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 11:40
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -8.81%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 14:40
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.81%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 09:40
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 14:40
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 14:40
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.78%E -2.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.78%E -2.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.78%E -2.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 14:15
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.78%E -2.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 14:10
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -10.83%E -7.74%K -27.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 12:09
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -10.83%E -7.74%K -27.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -9.32%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -14.16%E -3.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-18 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.60%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -10.97%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -2.86%E -0.584%K -0.734%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 14:40
Suprabets🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.82%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.10%EV -10.97%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -8.81%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 14:47
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.14%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -10.97%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.81%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 14:40
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.70%EV -7.01%E -4.80%K -15.25%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -10.97%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -10.20%E -7.23%K -24.87%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -10.97%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.79%E -2.40%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:43
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.98%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.12%EV -13.45%E -2.56%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -14.76%E -3.43%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-18 12:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.88%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.25%EV -14.27%E -2.74%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -14.76%E -3.43%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-18 12:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.88%EV -7.65%E -5.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.25%EV -14.27%E -2.74%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -14.76%E -3.43%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-18 12:39
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.04%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.18%EV -14.27%E -2.74%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.78%EV -14.76%E -3.43%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 12:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.04%EV -8.29%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.18%EV -14.27%E -2.74%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.78%EV -14.76%E -3.43%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 12:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.00%EV -10.83%E -7.74%K -27.09%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.96%EV -14.27%E -2.74%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.04%EV -12.78%E -2.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-18 14:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.85%EV -8.92%E -6.24%K -20.75%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.34%EV -15.92%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.81%EV -15.75%E -3.71%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-18 12:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.64%EV -10.83%E -7.74%K -27.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.20%EV -15.92%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.16%EV -13.77%E -3.16%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-18 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -0.007%E -0.004%K -0.012%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -17.57%E -3.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -12.78%E -2.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 16:30
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.06%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -17.57%E -3.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.87%EV -14.16%E -3.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.06%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -17.57%E -3.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.87%EV -14.16%E -3.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.06%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -17.57%E -3.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.87%EV -14.16%E -3.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 14:50
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.06%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -17.57%E -3.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.87%EV -14.16%E -3.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.62%EV -8.92%E -6.24%K -20.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -17.57%E -3.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -8.81%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 14:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.72%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.69%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.59%0.1%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.87%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%0.5%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.87%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%0.5%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.87%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%0.5%2026-09-18 15:30
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.61%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-09-18 15:30
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%1.8%2026-09-18 13:40