Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 11:00 UTC

Final: SV Darmstadt 98 2–2 Holstein Kiel

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Prediction 42.03%2.38fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.48%42.05%42.06%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.202.3050.00%45.83%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Holstein Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 31.43%3.18fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.825%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.35%31.46%31.43%33.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.953.1035.71%34.02%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV -0.502%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.182%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.49%26.52%27.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.503.7530.77%28.81%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SV Darmstadt 98 (Local): 42.03%; Holstein Kiel (Visit): 31.43%; Draw: 26.53%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -0.502%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -3.32%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 10:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -3.32%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 10:45
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.48%EV -4.16%E -1.83%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -10.42%E -3.65%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 10:54
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.28%EV -4.58%E -2.02%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.06%EV -2.87%E -0.930%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.66%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 10:40
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -0.502%E -0.134%K -0.182%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 10:55
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 10:53
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 10:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 10:55
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 10:55
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 10:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 10:55
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 10:53
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:54
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.41%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.75%EV -2.87%E -0.930%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.84%EV -6.07%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 10:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.83%EV -6.26%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -5.07%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -9.26%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:50
Suprabets🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.22%EV -7.10%E -3.21%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -5.07%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.89%EV -7.93%E -2.29%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:47
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -3.16%E -0.864%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 10:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.56%E -0.825%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 10:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 10:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 10:55
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:54
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:54
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.82%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.51%EV -8.22%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:54
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.82%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.51%EV -8.22%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:50
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:54
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 10:53
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 10:45
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 10:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 10:45
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.05%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.47%EV -8.99%E -2.62%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 10:53
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 10:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 10:45
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:20
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:20
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:20
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 10:15
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -8.46%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 10:25
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -7.27%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 10:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -10.42%E -3.65%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -9.79%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 10:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.18%EV -12.99%E -6.27%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.96%EV -11.36%E -4.03%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.86%EV -13.77%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-08 10:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 42.91%EV -13.41%E -6.51%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.70%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -11.11%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 10:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 42.91%EV -13.41%E -6.51%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.70%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -11.11%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 10:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -13.83%E -6.75%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -12.44%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-08 10:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.92%EV -15.93%E -7.97%K -15.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -13.77%E -4.24%K -6.12%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-08 10:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-08-08 10:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-08-08 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-08-08 10:55
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-08-08 10:55
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-08-08 10:45
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.53%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78%0.9%2026-08-08 10:25

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