L’École des cotes

SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel

2026-08-08 11:00 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Résultat du match

25 opérateurs (8 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Prévision 44.57%2.24cote équitable
EV -4.18%
Avantage -1.95%
Kelly -3.64%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.43%44.58%44.41%45.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.882.042.052.1553.19%48.95%48.78%46.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Holstein Kiel (Visiteur)

Prévision 29.76%3.36cote équitable
EV -3.27%
Avantage -1.01%
Kelly -1.45%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.35%29.75%29.85%31.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.053.053.2535.71%32.82%32.79%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.67%3.90cote équitable
EV -1.17%
Avantage -0.304%
Kelly -0.410%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.53%25.67%25.75%26.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.503.503.8531.25%28.55%28.57%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (25 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.41%EV -4.18%E -1.95%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -1.17%E -0.304%K -0.410%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-24 15:44
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -4.18%E -1.95%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 05:58
1xBet2.13I 46.95%NM 43.97%EV -5.07%E -2.38%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -6.25%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.31%EV -8.61%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-23 05:59
SportsBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.39%EV -5.52%E -2.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -2.45%E -0.646%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-24 15:45
Marathon Bet2.11I 47.39%NM 44.20%EV -5.96%E -2.83%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -6.25%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.20%EV -8.61%E -2.42%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-23 05:59
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.41%E -3.05%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.45%E -0.646%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-25 16:50
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -6.41%E -3.05%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -2.45%E -0.646%K -0.876%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 15:49
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -6.41%E -3.05%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -8.87%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-24 21:14
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 45.00%EV -8.19%E -3.98%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -3.27%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -10.15%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 10:40
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -3.27%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.44%E -3.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-13 12:15
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -3.27%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.44%E -3.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-13 12:14
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.76%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.15%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-13 12:14
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -13.69%E -4.72%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-24 15:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -13.69%E -4.72%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-24 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.72%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 06:00
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.72%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 06:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.72%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 06:00
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.64%E -4.21%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.72%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 05:59
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -9.98%E -4.94%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -12.72%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-23 05:59
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -10.87%E -5.43%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -6.25%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-13 05:49
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 43.43%EV -10.87%E -5.43%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.02%EV -16.66%E -5.95%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -12.72%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-24 15:45
Betclic (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.08%EV -14.88%E -7.79%K -16.35%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.42%EV -9.82%E -3.24%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.50%EV -16.57%E -5.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-24 11:10
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 44.24%EV -15.32%E -8.07%K -17.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.49%EV -15.17%E -5.32%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.27%EV -17.86%E -5.58%K -8.12%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-13 05:49
Unibet (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 44.82%EV -15.77%E -8.34%K -17.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.71%EV -12.20%E -4.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.47%EV -17.86%E -5.58%K -8.12%G +0.000%18.1%2026-07-24 11:05
NetBet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 44.50%EV -16.22%E -8.63%K -18.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.35%EV -15.17%E -5.32%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.14%EV -17.86%E -5.58%K -8.12%G +0.000%19.5%2026-07-23 05:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 43.99%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.23%16.6%2026-07-13 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.02I 98.04%NM 37.99%158.0%2026-07-22 13:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.02I 98.04%NM 37.99%158.0%2026-07-22 13:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.25I 80.00%NM 31.00%1.02I 98.04%NM 37.99%158.0%2026-07-22 13:45