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Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin

2026-10-16 16:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 37.66%2.66fair odd
EV +16.75%
Edge +5.40%
Kelly +7.98%
Growth +1.34%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.42%36.50%37.71%40.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.452.453.1046.51%40.88%40.82%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hertha Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 37.61%2.66fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.05%38.88%37.66%46.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.422.432.5048.78%41.39%41.15%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.73%4.04fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.275%
Kelly -0.366%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.58%24.62%24.63%25.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.663.704.0028.99%27.32%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Holstein Kiel (Local): 37.66%; Hertha Berlin (Visit): 37.61%; Draw: 24.73%. For Holstein Kiel (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.10, producing a positive expected value of +16.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV +16.75%E +5.40%K +7.98%G +1.34%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -22.90%E -11.17%K -21.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -1.10%E -0.275%K -0.366%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:10
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.84%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.84%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.84%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.84%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.84%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.84%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:01
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.84%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.84%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.97%E -2.39%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.69%EV -7.73%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.69%EV -7.85%E -3.20%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.28%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -7.73%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -7.85%E -3.20%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -9.75%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -7.73%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -7.85%E -3.20%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -9.75%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.25%EV -8.48%E -3.49%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.25%EV -8.60%E -3.54%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -12.22%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -9.61%E -4.00%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -9.73%E -4.05%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.28%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-10 19:35
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -9.61%E -4.00%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -9.73%E -4.05%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -8.52%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.54%EV -9.61%E -4.00%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -8.60%E -3.54%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -12.22%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.54%EV -9.61%E -4.00%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -8.60%E -3.54%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -12.22%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -9.61%E -4.00%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -9.73%E -4.05%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.46%E -3.85%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-10 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.18%EV -10.36%E -4.35%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.18%EV -10.48%E -4.40%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.65%EV -14.70%E -4.26%K -6.00%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-10 14:01
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.15%EV -13.38%E -5.82%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.34%EV -11.61%E -4.94%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.51%EV -11.48%E -3.21%K -4.45%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-10 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.02%EV -13.38%E -5.82%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.02%EV -13.49%E -5.87%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.96%EV -9.75%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.10%EV -15.26%E -6.78%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.10%EV -15.37%E -6.83%K -12.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -10.99%E -3.05%K -4.23%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.24%EV -19.03%E -8.85%K -16.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -9.73%E -4.05%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.71%EV -9.75%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-10 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (146 combinations) +2.82%Tipico (DE) 3.10 (33.2%) / Unibet 2.50 (41.1%) / Tipico (DE) 4.00 (25.7%)Show all 146 combinations
Holstein Kiel (Local)Hertha Berlin (Visit)DrawMargin
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (33.2%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (41.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.7%)+2.82%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (33.2%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (41.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.7%)+2.82%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (33.2%)Grosvenor🎯 2.50 (41.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.7%)+2.82%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (33.2%)Casumo🎯 2.50 (41.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.7%)+2.82%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (33.2%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.50 (41.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.7%)+2.82%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (33.2%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.50 (41.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.7%)+2.82%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (33.2%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.50 (41.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.7%)+2.82%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (33.2%)betPARX🎯 2.50 (41.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.7%)+2.82%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.9%)Unibet (UK)🎯 2.45 (41.6%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.5%)+1.96%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.9%)NordicBet🎯 2.45 (41.6%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.5%)+1.96%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.9%)Betsson🎯 2.45 (41.6%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.5%)+1.96%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.8%)TABtouch🎯 2.43 (41.8%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.4%)+1.62%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.8%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.43 (41.8%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.4%)+1.62%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.8%)BetRivers🎯 2.43 (41.8%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.4%)+1.62%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (40.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (40.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Grosvenor🎯 2.50 (40.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Grosvenor🎯 2.50 (40.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Casumo🎯 2.50 (40.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Casumo🎯 2.50 (40.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.50 (40.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.50 (40.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.50 (40.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.50 (40.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.50 (40.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.50 (40.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)betPARX🎯 2.50 (40.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)betPARX🎯 2.50 (40.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.75 (27.0%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)LeoVegas🎯 2.40 (42.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)theScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.6%)Unibet (FR)🎯 2.40 (42.1%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.3%)+1.09%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)LiveScore Bet🎯 2.38 (42.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.00 (25.2%)+0.730%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Unibet🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Unibet (NL)🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Grosvenor🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Casumo🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)betPARX🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet🎯 2.50 (40.3%)theScore Bet🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Unibet🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Unibet (NL)🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Grosvenor🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Casumo🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (40.3%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.50 (40.3%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.70 (27.2%)+0.720%

Showing 50 of 146 combinations