Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 16:30 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 0–0 Hertha Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 32.43%3.08fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.570%
Kelly -0.851%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.40%32.50%32.41%33.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.812.803.0338.02%35.57%35.71%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hertha Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 42.96%2.33fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.48%42.98%42.94%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.152.2350.00%46.31%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.61%4.06fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.391%
Kelly -0.521%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.63%24.53%24.65%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.754.0028.57%26.73%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 32.43%; Hertha Berlin (Visit): 42.96%; Draw: 24.61%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -1.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.93%EV -1.73%E -0.570%K -0.851%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.39%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.68%EV -3.53%E -0.901%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-16 16:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.94%EV -2.05%E -0.679%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.64%EV -5.06%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.42%EV -2.79%E -0.707%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-16 16:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.94%EV -2.05%E -0.679%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.64%EV -5.06%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.42%EV -2.79%E -0.707%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-16 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -2.70%E -0.900%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 16:14
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -4.32%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -4.02%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-16 16:18
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -4.32%E -1.47%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.94%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.92%EV -5.49%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 16:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.94%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.92%EV -5.49%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -5.94%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -5.49%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 16:20
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -5.94%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -5.49%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 16:15
picklebet_au🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -5.94%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -5.49%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 16:20
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.94%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -5.49%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-16 16:10
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.94%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-16 16:19
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -5.94%E -2.05%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.55%EV -8.93%E -4.21%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 16:20
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.34%EV -6.27%E -2.17%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.07%EV -6.78%E -3.13%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -6.59%E -2.29%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.25%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 16:20
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.25%EV -7.57%E -2.65%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.07%EV -5.49%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -1.56%E -0.391%K -0.521%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 16:24
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.57%E -2.65%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -10.18%E -2.79%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-16 16:20
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.57%E -2.65%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -10.18%E -2.79%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-16 16:20
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.09%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.09%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:05
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.09%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:05
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.09%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.09%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.09%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.09%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:05
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.09%EV -4.20%E -1.89%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:05
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.11%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -4.02%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 16:09
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.11%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -4.02%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 16:20
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.71%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-16 16:20
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 16:20
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 16:13
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.41%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:15
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.41%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.41%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.41%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:15
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -11.94%E -5.82%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 16:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -9.19%E -3.28%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -11.94%E -5.82%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 16:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -10.81%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -5.49%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -4.02%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 16:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.51%EV -10.81%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -4.02%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-16 16:25
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -10.81%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-16 16:25
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -10.81%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -13.87%E -3.96%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -10.81%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -13.87%E -3.96%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -10.81%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -13.87%E -3.96%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 16:10
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -10.81%E -3.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -13.87%E -3.96%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 16:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.11%EV -11.46%E -4.20%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 43.19%EV -12.80%E -6.30%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.70%EV -12.64%E -3.56%K -4.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-16 16:20
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -12.43%E -4.60%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.95%EV -7.21%E -3.34%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-16 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.43%E -4.60%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.92%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -10.18%E -2.79%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-16 16:05
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.43%E -4.60%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.92%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -10.18%E -2.79%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-16 16:05
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -12.43%E -4.60%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -7.64%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.87%E -3.96%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-16 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.82%EV -12.43%E -4.60%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.23%EV -11.94%E -5.82%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-16 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.15%EV -12.43%E -4.60%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.40%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.45%EV -12.64%E -3.56%K -4.96%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-16 16:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 32.87%EV -13.40%E -5.02%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.40%EV -11.08%E -5.35%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72%EV -12.64%E -3.56%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-16 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.73%EV -14.05%E -5.30%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.77%EV -8.07%E -3.77%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -10.18%E -2.79%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.66%EV -14.70%E -5.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.75%EV -8.93%E -4.21%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -11.41%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-16 16:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.66%EV -14.70%E -5.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.75%EV -8.93%E -4.21%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -11.41%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-16 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-10-16 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-10-16 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-10-16 16:20
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-10-16 16:25
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-10-16 16:25
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-10-16 16:25