Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel v Elversberg

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 28.18%3.55fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.476%
Kelly +0.659%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.82%28.22%28.18%30.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.223.203.6133.90%31.06%31.25%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elversberg (Visit)

Prediction 45.37%2.20fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.90%45.33%45.36%47.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.042.052.1555.56%48.98%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.45%3.78fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.575%
Kelly -0.788%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%26.45%26.46%27.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.493.503.7032.26%28.67%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 28.18%; Elversberg (Visit): 45.37%; Draw: 26.45%. For Holstein Kiel (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.82%EV +1.72%E +0.476%K +0.659%G +0.011%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.01%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -2.13%E -0.575%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -1.38%E -0.394%K -0.552%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -2.91%E -1.36%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 11:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -1.38%E -0.394%K -0.552%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -2.91%E -1.36%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-28 11:40
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.91%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 10:39
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 11:40
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 11:40
DraftKings🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 11:40
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 11:04
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 11:06
Bovada🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -5.61%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 11:36
1xBet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.21%EV -6.45%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.03%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.45%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.27%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 11:40
Suprabets🎯3.31I 30.21%NM 28.26%EV -6.73%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.40%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-28 11:37
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 05:59
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 11:40
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 11:03
Everygame🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 11:40
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-28 10:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 11:40
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 11:40
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 11:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 11:40
William Hill🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-28 11:05
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 11:40
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 11:40
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 11:40
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 11:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.91%EV -11.98%E -6.18%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -8.74%E -2.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-28 11:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 28.63%EV -12.09%E -3.87%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.11%EV -10.17%E -5.13%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-28 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -3.81%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 19:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -3.81%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 19:39
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:39
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -13.34%E -6.99%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -18.00%E -5.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%16.9%2026-02-28 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -14.06%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 19:40
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -14.06%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 19:40
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -14.06%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 19:39
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 27.30%EV -14.06%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 46.26%EV -18.33%E -10.18%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.44%EV -16.68%E -5.29%K -7.76%G +0.000%20.1%2026-02-28 11:05
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -15.47%E -5.16%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -2.45%E -1.14%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-24 21:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.30%EV -15.47%E -5.16%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.85%EV -11.07%E -5.65%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%13.8%2026-02-28 11:40
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.81%EV -15.47%E -5.16%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.01%EV -12.89%E -6.71%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.19%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-28 11:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.03%EV -16.88%E -5.72%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -8.74%E -2.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-22 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.03%EV -16.88%E -5.72%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -8.74%E -2.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-22 19:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-02-28 11:40
Matchbook3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-02-28 11:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-02-28 11:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.60%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%1.5%2026-02-28 11:40
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.41%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%1.9%2026-02-28 11:40