La escuela de los momios

Holstein Kiel v Elversberg

Inicio: 2026-02-28 12:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Predicción 28.18%3.55momio equitativo
EV +1.72%
Ventaja +0.476%
Kelly +0.659%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.82%28.22%28.18%30.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.953.223.203.6133.90%31.06%31.25%27.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Elversberg (Visitante)

Predicción 45.37%2.20momio equitativo
EV -2.45%
Ventaja -1.14%
Kelly -2.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.90%45.33%45.36%47.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.802.042.052.1555.56%48.98%48.78%46.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.45%3.78momio equitativo
EV -2.13%
Ventaja -0.575%
Kelly -0.788%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.65%26.45%26.46%27.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.493.503.7032.26%28.67%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle3.61I 27.70%NM 26.82%EV +1.72%E +0.476%K +0.659%G +0.011%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.01%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -2.13%E -0.575%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 11:40
BetOnline.ag3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -1.38%E -0.394%K -0.552%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -2.91%E -1.36%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 11:40
LowVig.ag3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -1.38%E -0.394%K -0.552%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -2.91%E -1.36%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Coolbet3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-28 11:40
Fanatics3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 11:40
Codere (IT)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.91%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 10:39
Tipico (DE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 11:40
BetMGM3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 11:40
DraftKings3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 11:40
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 11:04
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.20%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 11:06
Bovada3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -5.61%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 11:36
1xBet3.32I 30.12%NM 28.21%EV -6.45%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.03%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 11:40
Marathon Bet3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.45%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.27%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 11:40
Suprabets3.31I 30.21%NM 28.26%EV -6.73%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.40%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-28 11:37
PointsBet (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 05:59
Betr (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 11:40
Bet Victor3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 11:03
Everygame3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 11:40
Paddy Power3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-28 10:35
Unibet (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 11:40
Betway3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 11:40
888sport3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 11:40
888sport (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Mr Green (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 11:40
William Hill3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-28 11:05
theScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 11:40
NordicBet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 11:40
Betsson3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 11:40
Coral3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Neds3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Winamax (DE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 11:40
Parions Sport (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.91%EV -11.98%E -6.18%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -8.74%E -2.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-28 11:40
Betclic (FR)3.12I 32.05%NM 28.63%EV -12.09%E -3.87%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.11%EV -10.17%E -5.13%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-28 11:39
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -3.81%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 19:40
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -3.81%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 19:39
Unibet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
Unibet (NL)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
Unibet (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
TABtouch3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:39
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.77%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -12.65%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -13.34%E -6.99%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -18.00%E -5.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%16.9%2026-02-28 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -14.06%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 19:40
LeoVegas3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -14.06%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 19:40
BetRivers3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -14.06%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.09%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 19:39
PMU (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 27.30%EV -14.06%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 46.26%EV -18.33%E -10.18%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.44%EV -16.68%E -5.29%K -7.76%G +0.000%20.1%2026-02-28 11:05
PlayUp3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -15.47%E -5.16%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -2.45%E -1.14%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-24 21:15
Winamax (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.30%EV -15.47%E -5.16%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.85%EV -11.07%E -5.65%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%13.8%2026-02-28 11:40
NetBet (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 28.81%EV -15.47%E -5.16%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.01%EV -12.89%E -6.71%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.19%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-28 11:40
LiveScore Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 30.03%EV -16.88%E -5.72%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -8.74%E -2.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-22 19:40
Virgin Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 30.03%EV -16.88%E -5.72%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -8.74%E -2.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-22 19:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-02-28 11:40
Matchbook3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-02-28 11:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-02-28 11:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.60%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%1.5%2026-02-28 11:40
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.41%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%1.9%2026-02-28 11:40