Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.43
assuming max odds 2.95
assuming max odds 3.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 39.77%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 33.88%; Draw: 26.35%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.951. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.950, with an expected value of -0.048%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.62%EV -3.37%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.14%EV -4.45%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.23%EV -3.29%E -0.896%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.56%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -1.18%E -0.315%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 00:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -4.56%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -2.50%E -0.675%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.56%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 09:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.68%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 00:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.53%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 01:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 01:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.08%EV -7.16%E -2.61%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 12:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.08%EV -7.16%E -2.61%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 11:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -3.82%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 09:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92%EV -10.21%E -3.85%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 04:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92%EV -10.21%E -3.85%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 04:40 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.64%EV -6.95%E -2.97%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 33.85%EV -7.16%E -2.61%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 12:33 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.44%EV -7.74%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.64%EV -7.84%E -2.88%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.44%EV -7.74%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.64%EV -7.84%E -2.88%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.21%EV -8.14%E -3.52%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -0.048%E -0.016%K -0.025%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.52%EV -5.40%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.21%EV -8.14%E -3.52%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -0.048%E -0.016%K -0.025%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.52%EV -5.40%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.50%E -0.675%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.09%E -2.63%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 08:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.23%E -4.29%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 12:38 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.23%E -4.29%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 12:38 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.23%E -4.29%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-03 00:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 09:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -10.21%E -3.85%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-03 01:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -10.89%E -4.14%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -10.89%E -4.14%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-03 01:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -10.89%E -4.14%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -13.04%E -3.95%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 09:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -9.33%E -4.09%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 11:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 10:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 10:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 10:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 10:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -11.72%E -3.50%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -11.72%E -3.50%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-03 01:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -11.72%E -3.50%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-03 01:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 39.16%EV -11.72%E -5.28%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.09%EV -13.60%E -5.33%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.75%EV -14.36%E -4.42%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-09-04 12:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.09%E -2.63%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 11:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.11%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.94%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.95%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |