Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg

Início: 2026-09-05 11:00 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 2–2 1. FC Nürnberg

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Previsão 39.77%2.51odd justa
EV -3.37%
Vantagem -1.39%
Kelly -2.36%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.89%39.84%39.81%41.21%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.202.312.302.4345.45%43.22%43.48%41.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visitante)

Previsão 33.88%2.95odd justa
EV -0.048%
Vantagem -0.016%
Kelly -0.025%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.27%33.89%33.79%35.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.552.722.752.9539.22%36.71%36.43%33.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.35%3.79odd justa
EV -1.18%
Vantagem -0.315%
Kelly -0.429%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.39%26.27%26.40%27.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.503.503.7530.77%28.57%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Holstein Kiel (Local): 39.77%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visitante): 33.88%; Empate: 26.35%. Para 1. FC Nürnberg (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.951. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.950, com valor esperado de -0.048%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.62%EV -3.37%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.14%EV -4.45%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.23%EV -3.29%E -0.896%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 12:40
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.56%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -1.18%E -0.315%K -0.429%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 00:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -4.56%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -2.50%E -0.675%K -0.925%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 11:25
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.56%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 09:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.68%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 00:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.53%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 01:14
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 01:14
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 01:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 01:15
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 01:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 01:15
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 01:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.45%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 01:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 11:30
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.08%EV -7.16%E -2.61%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.08%EV -7.16%E -2.61%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 12:40
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 11:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -3.82%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 00:05
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 09:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92%EV -10.21%E -3.85%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 04:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92%EV -10.21%E -3.85%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 04:40
Suprabets🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.64%EV -6.95%E -2.97%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.85%EV -7.16%E -2.61%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 12:33
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.44%EV -7.74%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.64%EV -7.84%E -2.88%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 00:05
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.44%EV -7.74%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.64%EV -7.84%E -2.88%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 00:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.21%EV -8.14%E -3.52%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -0.048%E -0.016%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.52%EV -5.40%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.21%EV -8.14%E -3.52%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -0.048%E -0.016%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.52%EV -5.40%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 00:10
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.50%E -0.675%K -0.925%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 08:50
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 12:50
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 12:35
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.09%E -2.63%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 13:20
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 00:05
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 08:49
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.23%E -4.29%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 12:38
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.23%E -4.29%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 12:38
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.23%E -4.29%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.13%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 00:04
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:05
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -10.21%E -3.85%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 01:14
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -10.89%E -4.14%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 01:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -10.89%E -4.14%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 01:14
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -10.89%E -4.14%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -13.04%E -3.95%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 09:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -9.33%E -4.09%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 11:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 10:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 10:25
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 10:25
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -5.13%E -1.83%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 10:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -11.72%E -3.50%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-03 01:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -11.72%E -3.50%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-03 01:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -11.72%E -3.50%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-03 01:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.16%EV -11.72%E -5.28%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.09%EV -13.60%E -5.33%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.75%EV -14.36%E -4.42%K -6.38%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-04 12:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -6.82%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.09%E -2.63%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 11:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 08:45
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 08:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 08:45
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -8.52%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.77%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 08:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.11%EV -12.51%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.94%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.95%EV -10.40%E -3.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-03 00:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-04 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-04 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-04 13:30
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-04 14:20
Matchbook◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.64%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-09-04 13:40
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-09-04 13:10