Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin v 1. FC Magdeburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 11:30 UTC

Final: Hertha Berlin 2–1 1. FC Magdeburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Prediction 48.83%2.05fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.80%48.83%48.91%50.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.881.881.9755.87%53.16%53.19%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 27.61%3.62fair odd
EV +3.81%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.26%27.69%27.52%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.313.7632.26%29.98%30.21%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.56%4.24fair odd
EV +1.30%
Edge +0.302%
Kelly +0.393%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.18%23.48%23.56%24.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.943.904.3027.78%25.40%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hertha Berlin (Local): 48.83%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit): 27.61%; Draw: 23.56%. For 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -7.70%E -4.08%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.26%EV +3.81%E +1.01%K +1.38%G +0.052%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.48%EV -8.60%E -2.22%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 11:25
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -5.26%E -2.71%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.69%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.022%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.51%EV -3.18%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 11:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -3.80%E -1.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.14%EV -2.27%E -0.640%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.08%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-06 10:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -3.80%E -1.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.14%EV -2.27%E -0.640%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.08%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-06 10:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.52%EV -8.68%E -4.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -3.37%E -0.963%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -1.06%E -0.252%K -0.330%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.42%EV -4.77%E -2.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 06:14
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Suprabets🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.05%EV -7.70%E -4.08%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.08%EV -9.30%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 11:05
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.01%EV -10.63%E -5.81%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 11:23
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.79%EV -7.65%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 11:25
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -5.75%E -2.98%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -1.06%E -0.252%K -0.330%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 11:00
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.80%EV -4.77%E -2.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 10:44
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 10:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.77%E -2.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 06:10
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 11:04
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 11:00
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 06:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.45%EV -5.26%E -2.71%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -7.51%E -2.24%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 06:14
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -6.24%E -3.25%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.51%E -2.24%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 06:10
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -6.24%E -3.25%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.51%E -2.24%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 06:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.37%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.39%EV -8.34%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -11.66%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 11:19
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.77%E -2.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV +1.30%E +0.302%K +0.393%G +0.005%4.8%2026-09-06 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 11:15
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -10.63%E -5.81%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 10:45
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:15
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:05
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -11.12%E -6.11%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 10:44
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -11.12%E -6.11%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 10:44
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -1.06%E -0.252%K -0.330%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 11:24
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -1.06%E -0.252%K -0.330%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 11:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.46%EV -12.59%E -7.03%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 10:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.46%EV -12.59%E -7.03%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 10:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.46%EV -12.59%E -7.03%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 10:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 11:10
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.08%EV -6.24%E -3.25%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 11:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 10:50
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 11:10
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 11:10
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -10.63%E -5.81%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -11.66%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.07%EV -10.63%E -5.81%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.49%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -15.19%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-06 11:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.08%EV -9.17%E -4.93%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -13.03%E -4.14%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 06:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:00
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:00
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.08%EV -11.61%E -6.41%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.84%EV -14.01%E -3.84%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-06 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.24%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%0.5%2026-09-06 11:20
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74%1.0%2026-09-06 10:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-09-06 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-09-06 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-09-06 11:25
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%2.2%2026-09-06 11:25