Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hertha Berlin v 1. FC Magdeburg

Inicio: 2026-09-06 11:30 UTC

Final: Hertha Berlin 2–1 1. FC Magdeburg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Predicción 48.83%2.05momio equitativo
EV -3.80%
Ventaja -1.93%
Kelly -3.91%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.80%48.83%48.91%50.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.791.881.881.9755.87%53.16%53.19%50.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visitante)

Predicción 27.61%3.62momio equitativo
EV +3.81%
Ventaja +1.01%
Kelly +1.38%
Crecimiento +0.052%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.26%27.69%27.52%28.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.343.313.7632.26%29.98%30.21%26.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.56%4.24momio equitativo
EV +1.30%
Ventaja +0.302%
Kelly +0.393%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.18%23.48%23.56%24.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.943.904.3027.78%25.40%25.64%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hertha Berlin (Local): 48.83%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visitante): 27.61%; Empate: 23.56%. Para 1. FC Magdeburg (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.62. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.76, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.81%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -7.70%E -4.08%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.26%EV +3.81%E +1.01%K +1.38%G +0.052%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.48%EV -8.60%E -2.22%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 11:25
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -5.26%E -2.71%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.69%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.022%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.51%EV -3.18%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 11:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -3.80%E -1.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.14%EV -2.27%E -0.640%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.08%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-06 10:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -3.80%E -1.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.14%EV -2.27%E -0.640%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.08%EV -6.00%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-06 10:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.52%EV -8.68%E -4.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -3.37%E -0.963%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -1.06%E -0.252%K -0.330%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.42%EV -4.77%E -2.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 06:14
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:44
Suprabets🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.05%EV -7.70%E -4.08%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.08%EV -9.30%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 11:05
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.01%EV -10.63%E -5.81%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -4.75%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 11:23
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.79%EV -7.65%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 11:25
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -5.75%E -2.98%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -1.06%E -0.252%K -0.330%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 11:00
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.80%EV -4.77%E -2.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 10:44
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 10:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.77%E -2.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 06:10
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 11:04
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 11:00
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.13%E -1.80%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 06:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.45%EV -5.26%E -2.71%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -7.51%E -2.24%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 06:14
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -6.24%E -3.25%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.51%E -2.24%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 06:10
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -6.24%E -3.25%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.51%E -2.24%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 06:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.37%EV -8.19%E -4.36%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.39%EV -8.34%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -11.66%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 11:19
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.77%E -2.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV +1.30%E +0.302%K +0.393%G +0.005%4.8%2026-09-06 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 11:15
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -10.63%E -5.81%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 10:45
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:15
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:05
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -11.12%E -6.11%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 10:44
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -11.12%E -6.11%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.89%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 10:44
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -1.06%E -0.252%K -0.330%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 11:24
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -1.06%E -0.252%K -0.330%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 11:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.46%EV -12.59%E -7.03%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 10:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.46%EV -12.59%E -7.03%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 10:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.46%EV -12.59%E -7.03%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.27%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 10:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -3.41%E -0.832%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 11:10
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.08%EV -6.24%E -3.25%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 11:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 10:50
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 11:10
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.73%E -3.52%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -8.12%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 11:10
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -10.63%E -5.81%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -11.66%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.07%EV -10.63%E -5.81%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.49%EV -11.65%E -3.64%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -15.19%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-06 11:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.08%EV -9.17%E -4.93%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -13.03%E -4.14%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 06:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:00
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:00
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -9.66%E -5.22%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 11:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.08%EV -11.61%E -6.41%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -14.41%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.84%EV -14.01%E -3.84%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-06 11:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.24%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%0.5%2026-09-06 11:20
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74%1.0%2026-09-06 10:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-09-06 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-09-06 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-09-06 11:25
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%2.2%2026-09-06 11:25