Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hertha Berlin v 1. FC Magdeburg

2026-09-06 11:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Predicción 48.25%2.07momio equitativo
EV -4.47%
Ventaja -2.26%
Kelly -4.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.79%48.35%48.31%50.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.911.911.9855.56%52.23%52.36%50.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visitante)

Predicción 27.29%3.66momio equitativo
EV +0.988%
Ventaja +0.267%
Kelly +0.366%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.48%27.26%27.34%29.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.303.303.7032.79%30.27%30.30%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.46%4.09momio equitativo
EV +2.73%
Ventaja +0.650%
Kelly +0.853%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.78%24.40%24.36%26.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.483.753.754.2028.74%26.65%26.67%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Hertha Berlin (Local): 48.25%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visitante): 27.29%; Empate: 24.46%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.09. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.20, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.73%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV +2.73%E +0.650%K +0.853%G +0.023%4.5%2026-08-31 12:40
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 09:08
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -10.74%E -5.81%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV +0.988%E +0.267%K +0.366%G +0.004%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-31 08:25
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -8.33%E -4.39%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.84%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 08:58
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -9.78%E -5.23%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 09:43
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -4.47%E -2.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -3.39%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 10:50
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -4.95%E -2.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.39%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 10:50
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -4.95%E -2.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.39%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 10:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -4.95%E -2.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.39%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -4.95%E -2.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.39%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 10:50
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -4.95%E -2.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.39%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 10:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -4.95%E -2.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.39%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -4.95%E -2.51%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -3.39%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 10:50
Pinnacle🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.64%EV -7.37%E -3.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -0.376%E -0.103%K -0.142%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.25%EV -3.87%E -0.986%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-31 13:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 09:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -8.33%E -4.39%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-31 12:10
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.06%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.54%EV -3.65%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.40%EV -6.08%E -1.58%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.36%EV -8.81%E -4.66%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -3.38%E -0.954%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.08%E -1.58%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 12:30
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.05%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 11:49
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.18%EV -8.33%E -4.39%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -7.05%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 12:29
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.18%EV -8.33%E -4.39%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -7.05%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 12:29
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -10.74%E -5.81%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -7.05%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-31 09:05
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -8.33%E -4.39%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 12:40
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.79%EV -6.88%E -3.57%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-31 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.92%EV -7.37%E -3.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 10:50
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.92%EV -7.37%E -3.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 10:50
Suprabets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.84%EV -9.30%E -4.94%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -5.84%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.55%EV -8.52%E -2.28%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 10:32
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 11:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 11:50
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -7.37%E -3.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 11:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.94%EV -8.81%E -4.66%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -16.75%E -5.49%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.98%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-31 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.94%EV -8.81%E -4.66%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -16.75%E -5.49%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.98%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-31 10:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -9.30%E -4.94%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.01%EV -16.75%E -5.49%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.92%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-31 10:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.56%EV -9.30%E -4.94%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -12.66%E -3.96%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.50%EV -10.72%E -2.94%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 11:50
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.47%EV -7.37%E -3.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 11:49
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.47%EV -7.37%E -3.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 11:49
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-31 11:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.46%EV -10.26%E -5.52%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.02%EV -14.02%E -4.45%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-31 11:50
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 11:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 11:50
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 11:49
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 11:50
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.29%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 11:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.60%EV -11.23%E -6.10%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -12.66%E -3.96%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.03%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-31 11:49
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -13.16%E -7.31%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-31 09:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.66%EV -11.23%E -6.10%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.15%EV -11.84%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.20%EV -14.88%E -4.28%K -6.00%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-31 11:53
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 49.10%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.41%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.49%6.1%2026-08-31 12:30
Smarkets1.84I 54.35%NM 46.46%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.03%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.52%17.0%2026-08-31 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-08-31 10:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-08-31 10:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.43%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.43%174.4%2026-08-31 13:10