L’École des cotes

Greuther Fürth v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 13:30 UTC

Score final : Greuther Fürth 3–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Prévision 42.86%2.33cote équitable
EV -0.133%
Avantage -0.057%
Kelly -0.100%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.33

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.25%42.75%42.84%43.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.022.192.202.3349.50%45.67%45.45%42.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visiteur)

Prévision 31.71%3.15cote équitable
EV -1.70%
Avantage -0.549%
Kelly -0.811%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.46%31.79%31.69%33.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.632.862.903.1038.02%35.00%34.48%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.43%3.93cote équitable
EV -2.10%
Avantage -0.544%
Kelly -0.735%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.52%25.46%25.47%27.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.583.603.8532.26%27.94%27.78%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -0.133%E -0.057%K -0.100%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -0.133%E -0.057%K -0.100%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
TABtouch2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -2.28%E -0.998%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 07:25
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -2.28%E -0.998%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 07:25
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -2.28%E -0.998%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.37%EV -3.56%E -1.58%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -2.10%E -0.544%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 07:39
Pinnacle2.21I 45.25%NM 43.39%EV -5.28%E -2.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.03%EV -2.02%E -0.653%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)2.21I 45.25%NM 42.76%EV -5.28%E -2.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.04%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:40
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 10:39
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 10:39
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.92%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -2.10%E -0.544%K -0.735%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:35
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:35
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 10:38
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:21
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.35%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 07:35
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 07:40
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 07:40
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 07:40
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.51%EV -15.97%E -6.03%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 07:25
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.51%EV -15.97%E -6.03%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 07:25
1xBet2.19I 45.66%NM 42.80%EV -6.13%E -2.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.45%EV -5.51%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.75%EV -7.44%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:39
LowVig.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 43.31%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -1.70%E -0.549%K -0.811%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:39
BetOnline.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 43.31%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -1.70%E -0.549%K -0.811%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:39
Suprabets2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.18%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.91%EV -8.20%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:35
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.67%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -7.41%E -2.54%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 07:35
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.67%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -7.41%E -2.54%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 07:35
PMU (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 40.33%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.43%EV -16.61%E -6.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -14.81%E -4.42%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-17 07:25
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.98%EV -6.99%E -3.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.40%EV -5.82%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -7.44%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:59
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:38
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:20
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:20
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:20
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:20
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:39
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:39
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -16.61%E -6.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -21.17%E -6.83%K -10.08%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-17 07:20
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -10.85%E -5.22%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.02%EV -7.69%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 07:34
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.79%EV -12.13%E -5.92%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.49%EV -14.39%E -5.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-17 07:35
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -12.13%E -5.92%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -12.27%E -3.56%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-17 07:35
NetBet (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 42.94%EV -13.42%E -6.64%K -13.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.54%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.51%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-17 08:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 42.01%3.03I 33.00%NM 33.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.99%0.0%2026-05-17 06:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.75%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.54%1.7%2026-05-17 10:40