La escuela de los momios

Greuther Fürth v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Inicio: 2026-05-17 13:30 UTC

Final: Greuther Fürth 3–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Predicción 42.86%2.33momio equitativo
EV -0.133%
Ventaja -0.057%
Kelly -0.100%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.25%42.75%42.84%43.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.022.192.202.3349.50%45.67%45.45%42.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visitante)

Predicción 31.71%3.15momio equitativo
EV -1.70%
Ventaja -0.549%
Kelly -0.811%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.46%31.79%31.69%33.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.862.903.1038.02%35.00%34.48%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.43%3.93momio equitativo
EV -2.10%
Ventaja -0.544%
Kelly -0.735%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.52%25.46%25.47%27.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.583.603.8532.26%27.94%27.78%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -0.133%E -0.057%K -0.100%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -0.133%E -0.057%K -0.100%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
TABtouch2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -1.42%E -0.617%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -2.28%E -0.998%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 07:25
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -2.28%E -0.998%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 07:25
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -2.28%E -0.998%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 07:25
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.37%EV -3.56%E -1.58%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -2.10%E -0.544%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 07:39
Pinnacle2.21I 45.25%NM 43.39%EV -5.28%E -2.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.03%EV -2.02%E -0.653%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)2.21I 45.25%NM 42.76%EV -5.28%E -2.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.04%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:40
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 10:39
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 10:39
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.92%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -2.10%E -0.544%K -0.735%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:35
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:35
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 10:38
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:21
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.35%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 07:35
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 07:40
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 07:40
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 07:40
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.51%EV -15.97%E -6.03%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 07:25
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -5.70%E -2.59%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.51%EV -15.97%E -6.03%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 07:25
1xBet2.19I 45.66%NM 42.80%EV -6.13%E -2.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.45%EV -5.51%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.75%EV -7.44%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:39
LowVig.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 43.31%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -1.70%E -0.549%K -0.811%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:39
BetOnline.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 43.31%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -1.70%E -0.549%K -0.811%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:39
Suprabets2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.18%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.91%EV -8.20%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:35
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.67%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -7.41%E -2.54%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 07:35
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.67%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -7.41%E -2.54%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 07:35
PMU (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 40.33%EV -6.56%E -3.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.43%EV -16.61%E -6.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -14.81%E -4.42%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-17 07:25
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.98%EV -6.99%E -3.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.40%EV -5.82%E -1.96%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -7.44%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 07:59
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:38
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:20
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:20
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:20
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.85%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:20
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:39
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 10:39
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -11.21%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -16.61%E -6.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -21.17%E -6.83%K -10.08%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-17 07:20
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -10.85%E -5.22%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -8.04%E -2.77%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.02%EV -7.69%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 07:34
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.79%EV -12.13%E -5.92%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.49%EV -14.39%E -5.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-17 07:35
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -12.13%E -5.92%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -12.27%E -3.56%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-17 07:35
NetBet (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 42.94%EV -13.42%E -6.64%K -13.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.54%EV -12.80%E -4.65%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.51%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-17 08:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 42.01%3.03I 33.00%NM 33.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.99%0.0%2026-05-17 06:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.75%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.54%1.7%2026-05-17 10:40