Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St. Pauli v Greuther Fürth

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 11:30 UTC

Final: FC St. Pauli 1–1 Greuther Fürth

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St. Pauli (Local)

Prediction 56.56%1.77fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.906%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.20%56.44%56.59%58.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.651.651.7465.36%60.70%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greuther Fürth (Visit)

Prediction 19.90%5.02fair odd
EV +2.29%
Edge +0.446%
Kelly +0.554%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 5.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.61%20.08%19.88%21.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.544.505.1425.00%22.05%22.22%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.53%4.25fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.276%
Kelly -0.362%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.47%23.48%23.53%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.893.854.2028.17%25.69%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC St. Pauli (Local): 56.56%; Greuther Fürth (Visit): 19.90%; Draw: 23.53%. For Greuther Fürth (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.33%EV -7.23%E -4.41%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.61%EV +2.29%E +0.446%K +0.554%G +0.013%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.05%EV -2.34%E -0.563%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.83%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -0.492%E -0.098%K -0.123%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.85%EV -4.69%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.83%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -0.492%E -0.098%K -0.123%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.85%EV -4.69%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:15
Suprabets🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -0.492%E -0.098%K -0.123%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -2.48%E -0.507%K -0.636%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.16%E -0.276%K -0.362%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 11:15
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.40%EV -10.06%E -6.33%K -17.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -2.48%E -0.507%K -0.636%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 11:24
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.28%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.53%EV -3.08%E -0.632%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.79%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 11:20
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -7.80%E -4.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:25
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.54%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:23
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.54%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:23
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.12%EV -5.47%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-09 11:15
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -5.47%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:08
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.47%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.99%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -6.46%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.42%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.02%EV -7.46%E -1.60%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 11:20
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.42%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.02%EV -7.46%E -1.60%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 11:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.83%EV -9.50%E -5.94%K -15.83%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.55%EV -7.46%E -1.60%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.62%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 11:23
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 11:20
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:20
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:25
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.34%EV -11.19%E -7.13%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.57%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -12.32%E -7.95%K -22.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 11:19
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -2.71%E -1.57%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -10.44%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 11:20
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -10.44%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 11:20
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -10.44%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -11.19%E -7.13%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.44%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 11:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:20
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.96%EV -13.46%E -8.79%K -25.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.81%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-09 11:15
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:15
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.52%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 11:15
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.52%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 11:15
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.31%EV -11.19%E -7.13%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.42%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:25
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -1.58%E -0.906%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -14.42%E -3.35%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.87%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 11:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.23%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -14.42%E -3.35%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 11:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.62%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -15.42%E -3.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:15
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.40%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.38%EV -15.42%E -3.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.23%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -16.41%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.93%E -3.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:15
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.23%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -16.41%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.93%E -3.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.66%EV -9.50%E -5.94%K -15.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -16.41%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.13%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.23%EV -7.80%E -4.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -18.40%E -4.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -14.10%E -3.86%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.23%EV -7.80%E -4.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -18.40%E -4.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -14.10%E -3.86%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.50%EV -11.19%E -7.13%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%EV -20.39%E -5.10%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.10%EV -16.46%E -4.64%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-09 11:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.58%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.58%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.58%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.58%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.65%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.95%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.78%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.66%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56%1.9%2026-08-09 11:25

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