L’École des cotes

FC St. Pauli v Greuther Fürth

2026-08-09 11:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Résultat du match

25 opérateurs (8 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC St. Pauli (Local)

Prévision 56.51%1.77cote équitable
EV -4.50%
Avantage -2.66%
Kelly -6.52%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.69

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.69%56.65%56.43%58.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.481.611.621.6967.57%61.96%61.73%59.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Greuther Fürth (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.39%4.90cote équitable
EV +1.97%
Avantage +0.394%
Kelly +0.492%
Croissance +0.010%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.81%20.25%20.41%21.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.904.394.405.0025.64%22.77%22.73%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 23.10%4.33cote équitable
EV -3.00%
Avantage -0.713%
Kelly -0.936%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.40%23.09%23.16%24.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.553.893.954.2028.17%25.68%25.32%23.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (25 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -9.58%E -5.99%K -15.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +1.97%E +0.394%K +0.492%G +0.010%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.00%E -0.713%K -0.936%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-24 15:00
Marathon Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.89%EV -7.32%E -4.47%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -5.17%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -6.46%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 04:38
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.19%EV -4.50%E -2.66%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -6.19%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -5.31%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 10:39
SportsBet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.08%EV -7.89%E -4.84%K -12.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -6.19%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -5.31%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-23 06:00
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.23%EV -8.45%E -5.22%K -13.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -6.19%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -5.31%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 05:58
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -6.19%E -3.73%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.41%EV -6.39%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.14%EV -6.46%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 04:54
Betsson1.65I 60.61%NM 56.17%EV -6.76%E -4.10%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -7.21%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 12:15
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.17%EV -6.76%E -4.10%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -7.21%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 12:14
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -5.06%E -3.01%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -3.00%E -0.713%K -0.936%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-23 08:04
Codere (IT)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.76%E -4.10%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-13 10:40
Bovada1.64I 60.98%NM 56.36%EV -7.32%E -4.47%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -7.61%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-26 04:51
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -6.76%E -4.10%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -12.23%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-13 12:14
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.09%EV -7.32%E -4.47%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -10.27%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.61%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-13 05:34
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.58%E -5.99%K -15.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -10.27%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -7.61%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-23 05:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.58%E -5.99%K -15.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -10.27%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -7.61%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-23 06:00
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -8.45%E -5.22%K -13.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -12.31%E -2.86%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -9.92%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-23 05:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -8.45%E -5.22%K -13.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -14.35%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -13.39%E -3.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-15 10:39
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -8.45%E -5.22%K -13.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -14.35%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -13.39%E -3.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-15 10:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.17%EV -9.02%E -5.60%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -14.35%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -13.39%E -3.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-15 10:39
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 55.17%EV -9.02%E -5.60%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -14.35%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -13.39%E -3.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-15 10:38
Betclic (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 55.75%EV -12.41%E -8.01%K -22.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.57%EV -14.35%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.67%EV -15.70%E -4.30%K -5.92%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-25 11:34
NetBet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 56.71%EV -16.37%E -11.06%K -34.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.98%EV -14.35%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.31%EV -16.85%E -4.68%K -6.48%G +0.000%19.2%2026-07-22 13:43
Unibet (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 55.29%EV -13.54%E -8.85%K -25.55%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 20.89%EV -17.41%E -4.30%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.83%EV -18.01%E -5.07%K -7.06%G +0.000%18.2%2026-07-25 11:35
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 54.69%EV -11.28%E -7.18%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.46%EV -18.43%E -4.61%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.85%EV -16.85%E -4.68%K -6.48%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-23 05:59
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 54.87%EV -12.97%E -8.43%K -24.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.66%EV -20.46%E -5.25%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.47%EV -16.85%E -4.68%K -6.48%G +0.000%18.4%2026-07-13 05:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 55.13%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.89%16.3%2026-07-13 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 31.58%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.58%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.84%166.1%2026-07-13 12:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 31.58%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.58%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.84%166.1%2026-07-13 12:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 31.58%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.58%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.84%166.1%2026-07-13 12:15