Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC St. Pauli v Greuther Fürth

Inicio: 2026-08-09 11:30 UTC

Final: FC St. Pauli 1–1 Greuther Fürth

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC St. Pauli (Local)

Predicción 56.56%1.77momio equitativo
EV -1.58%
Ventaja -0.906%
Kelly -2.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.20%56.44%56.59%58.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.651.651.7465.36%60.70%60.61%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Greuther Fürth (Visitante)

Predicción 19.90%5.02momio equitativo
EV +2.29%
Ventaja +0.446%
Kelly +0.554%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.61%20.08%19.88%21.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.544.505.1425.00%22.05%22.22%19.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.53%4.25momio equitativo
EV -1.16%
Ventaja -0.276%
Kelly -0.362%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.47%23.48%23.53%24.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.893.854.2028.17%25.69%25.97%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC St. Pauli (Local): 56.56%; Greuther Fürth (Visitante): 19.90%; Empate: 23.53%. Para Greuther Fürth (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.02. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.14, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.29%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.33%EV -7.23%E -4.41%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.61%EV +2.29%E +0.446%K +0.554%G +0.013%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.05%EV -2.34%E -0.563%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.83%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -0.492%E -0.098%K -0.123%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.85%EV -4.69%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.83%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -0.492%E -0.098%K -0.123%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.85%EV -4.69%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:15
Suprabets🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -0.492%E -0.098%K -0.123%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -2.48%E -0.507%K -0.636%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.16%E -0.276%K -0.362%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 11:15
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.40%EV -10.06%E -6.33%K -17.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -2.48%E -0.507%K -0.636%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 11:24
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.28%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.53%EV -3.08%E -0.632%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.79%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 11:20
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -7.80%E -4.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:25
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.54%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:23
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.54%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -4.47%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:23
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.12%EV -5.47%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-09 11:15
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -5.47%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:08
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.47%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.99%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -6.46%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.42%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.02%EV -7.46%E -1.60%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 11:20
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.42%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.02%EV -7.46%E -1.60%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 11:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.83%EV -9.50%E -5.94%K -15.83%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.55%EV -7.46%E -1.60%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.62%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 11:23
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -3.51%E -0.857%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 11:20
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:20
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:25
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.34%EV -11.19%E -7.13%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.57%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -12.32%E -7.95%K -22.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -8.45%E -1.84%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 11:19
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -2.71%E -1.57%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -10.44%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 11:20
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -10.44%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 11:20
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -10.44%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -11.19%E -7.13%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.44%E -2.32%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 11:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:20
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -3.27%E -1.91%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 11:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.96%EV -13.46%E -8.79%K -25.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.81%EV -12.43%E -2.83%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-09 11:15
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:15
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.52%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 11:15
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.52%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 11:15
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.31%EV -11.19%E -7.13%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.42%EV -13.83%E -3.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:25
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -1.58%E -0.906%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -14.42%E -3.35%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.87%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 11:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.23%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -14.42%E -3.35%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -5.87%E -1.47%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 11:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.62%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -15.42%E -3.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 11:15
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.40%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.38%EV -15.42%E -3.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.23%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -16.41%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.93%E -3.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:15
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.23%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -16.41%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.93%E -3.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.66%EV -9.50%E -5.94%K -15.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -16.41%E -3.91%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.13%EV -9.40%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.23%EV -7.80%E -4.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -18.40%E -4.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -14.10%E -3.86%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.23%EV -7.80%E -4.78%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -18.40%E -4.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -14.10%E -3.86%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 11:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.50%EV -11.19%E -7.13%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%EV -20.39%E -5.10%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.10%EV -16.46%E -4.64%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-09 11:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.58%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.58%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.58%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.58%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.65%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.95%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.78%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.66%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56%1.9%2026-08-09 11:25