Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Schalke 04 v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 18:30 UTC

Final: FC Schalke 04 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Schalke 04 (Local)

Prediction 61.66%1.62fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.843%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.18%61.44%61.70%62.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.521.511.6070.42%65.99%66.23%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit)

Prediction 16.70%5.99fair odd
EV +2.38%
Edge +0.388%
Kelly +0.463%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 6.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.66%16.76%16.76%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.405.406.1320.83%18.52%18.52%16.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.64%4.62fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -0.580%
Kelly -0.746%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%21.80%21.54%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.144.104.5028.57%24.15%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Schalke 04 (Local): 61.66%; Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit): 16.70%; Draw: 21.64%. For Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.99. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.13, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.76%EV -5.05%E -3.28%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.77%EV +2.38%E +0.388%K +0.463%G +0.011%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.48%EV -2.61%E -0.580%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.70%EV -6.90%E -4.57%K -13.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +0.207%E +0.034%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV +0.207%E +0.034%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 18:05
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +0.207%E +0.034%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.29%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:20
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.22%EV -6.90%E -4.57%K -13.52%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.93%EV -1.46%E -0.248%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.22%EV -6.90%E -4.57%K -13.52%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.93%EV -1.46%E -0.248%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.22%EV -6.90%E -4.57%K -13.52%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.93%EV -1.46%E -0.248%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:24
Suprabets🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.63%EV -8.13%E -5.46%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -1.46%E -0.248%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -6.29%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:24
Coolbet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.20%EV -3.81%E -2.45%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.60%EV -3.97%E -0.690%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-02 10:20
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.66%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -3.97%E -0.690%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 17:44
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -3.97%E -0.690%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -6.29%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:14
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -3.97%E -0.690%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.19%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -4.80%E -0.843%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV -5.86%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.85%EV -6.28%E -4.13%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -6.47%E -1.16%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 17:35
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.29%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -6.29%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -3.81%E -2.45%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -3.81%E -2.45%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 17:35
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -5.86%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 17:31
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -5.86%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.71%EV -6.28%E -4.13%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 06:05
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 05:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 06:04
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.10%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 18:10
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 18:10
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -9.10%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 18:21
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -11.48%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -11.48%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 18:20
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.68%EV -5.05%E -3.28%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -11.48%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.94%EV -11.21%E -7.79%K -25.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.83%EV -11.48%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -9.10%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 18:05
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -12.32%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 06:10
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -12.32%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -9.10%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-01 18:00
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -12.32%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.52%EV -10.60%E -7.31%K -23.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.99%EV -12.32%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.49%EV -10.19%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.82%EV -8.13%E -5.46%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.71%EV -13.15%E -2.53%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -2.61%E -0.580%K -0.746%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 10:45
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.18%EV -1.35%E -0.843%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.52%E -3.67%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.73%EV -8.13%E -5.46%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-02 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.73%EV -8.13%E -5.46%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-02 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.88%EV -9.36%E -6.37%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.26%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%EV -16.68%E -4.33%K -5.85%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-02 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.22%EV -12.45%E -8.77%K -29.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.05%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.73%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-02 18:05
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 18:25
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 58.84%EV -11.21%E -7.79%K -25.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.95%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.21%EV -24.25%E -6.93%K -9.70%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-02 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.62%EV -10.60%E -7.31%K -23.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -18.16%E -3.71%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-02 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -19.83%E -4.13%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 06:00
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -19.83%E -4.13%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 06:00
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -19.83%E -4.13%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -19.83%E -4.13%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 06:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-05-02 18:25
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.82%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.78%1.1%2026-05-02 18:10
Matchbook1.58I 63.29%NM 62.58%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%1.1%2026-05-02 18:25
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 61.96%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.25%2.1%2026-05-02 18:20