La escuela de los momios

FC Schalke 04 v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Inicio: 2026-05-02 18:30 UTC

Final: FC Schalke 04 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Schalke 04 (Local)

Predicción 61.66%1.62momio equitativo
EV -1.35%
Ventaja -0.843%
Kelly -2.25%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.18%61.44%61.70%62.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.421.521.511.6070.42%65.99%66.23%62.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visitante)

Predicción 16.70%5.99momio equitativo
EV +2.38%
Ventaja +0.388%
Kelly +0.463%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.13

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.66%16.76%16.76%18.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.805.405.406.1320.83%18.52%18.52%16.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.64%4.62momio equitativo
EV -2.61%
Ventaja -0.580%
Kelly -0.746%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.47%21.80%21.54%24.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.144.104.5028.57%24.15%24.39%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.54I 64.94%NM 62.76%EV -5.05%E -3.28%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.77%EV +2.38%E +0.388%K +0.463%G +0.011%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.48%EV -2.61%E -0.580%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 18:20
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 62.70%EV -6.90%E -4.57%K -13.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +0.207%E +0.034%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 18:25
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV +0.207%E +0.034%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 18:05
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +0.207%E +0.034%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.29%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:20
FanDuel1.51I 66.23%NM 62.22%EV -6.90%E -4.57%K -13.52%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.93%EV -1.46%E -0.248%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:24
LowVig.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 62.22%EV -6.90%E -4.57%K -13.52%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.93%EV -1.46%E -0.248%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:25
BetOnline.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 62.22%EV -6.90%E -4.57%K -13.52%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.93%EV -1.46%E -0.248%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:24
Suprabets1.49I 67.11%NM 62.63%EV -8.13%E -5.46%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -1.46%E -0.248%K -0.299%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -6.29%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:24
Coolbet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.20%EV -3.81%E -2.45%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.60%EV -3.97%E -0.690%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-02 10:20
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 61.66%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -3.97%E -0.690%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -6.94%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 17:44
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -3.97%E -0.690%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -6.29%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:14
PlayUp1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -3.97%E -0.690%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Marathon Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.19%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -4.80%E -0.843%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV -5.86%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:20
Codere (IT)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.85%EV -6.28%E -4.13%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -6.47%E -1.16%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 17:35
theScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.29%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -6.29%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 17:35
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -3.81%E -2.45%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -3.81%E -2.45%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 17:35
Betsson1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -5.86%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 17:31
NordicBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -5.86%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 17:40
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.71%EV -6.28%E -4.13%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 06:05
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 05:51
PointsBet (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 06:04
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.10%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 18:10
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.14%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 18:10
Bovada1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -9.10%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 18:21
Unibet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (NL)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Casumo1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
Grosvenor1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
betPARX1.55I 64.52%NM 60.06%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -9.81%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -11.48%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 18:20
BetRivers1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -4.43%E -2.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -11.48%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 18:20
LeoVegas1.54I 64.94%NM 59.68%EV -5.05%E -3.28%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -11.48%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 18:20
Unibet (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 61.94%EV -11.21%E -7.79%K -25.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.83%EV -11.48%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -9.10%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 18:05
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -3.20%E -2.04%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -12.32%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 06:10
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -12.32%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -9.10%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-01 18:00
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -12.32%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 18:10
Betclic (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 61.52%EV -10.60%E -7.31%K -23.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.99%EV -12.32%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.49%EV -10.19%E -2.45%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 18:10
Winamax (DE)1.49I 67.11%NM 61.82%EV -8.13%E -5.46%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.71%EV -13.15%E -2.53%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -2.61%E -0.580%K -0.746%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 10:45
TABtouch1.60I 62.50%NM 58.18%EV -1.35%E -0.843%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.52%E -3.67%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Virgin Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 59.73%EV -8.13%E -5.46%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-02 18:20
LiveScore Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 59.73%EV -8.13%E -5.46%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -15.60%E -4.00%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-02 18:20
PMU (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.88%EV -9.36%E -6.37%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.26%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%EV -16.68%E -4.33%K -5.85%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-02 18:25
NetBet (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 61.22%EV -12.45%E -8.77%K -29.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.05%EV -14.82%E -2.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.73%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-02 18:05
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 18:25
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 18:25
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.66%E -3.70%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.84%EV -11.21%E -7.79%K -25.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.95%EV -16.49%E -3.30%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.21%EV -24.25%E -6.93%K -9.70%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-02 18:10
Winamax (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.62%EV -10.60%E -7.31%K -23.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -18.16%E -3.71%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -11.27%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-02 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -19.83%E -4.13%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 06:00
Coral1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -19.83%E -4.13%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 06:00
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -19.83%E -4.13%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -7.51%E -5.01%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -19.83%E -4.13%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.43%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 06:01
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-05-02 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-05-02 18:25
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.82%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.78%1.1%2026-05-02 18:10
Matchbook1.58I 63.29%NM 62.58%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%1.1%2026-05-02 18:25
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 61.96%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.25%2.1%2026-05-02 18:20