Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elversberg v SC Paderborn

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 11:30 UTC

Final: Elversberg 5–1 SC Paderborn

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elversberg (Local)

Prediction 43.27%2.31fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.13%43.36%43.20%44.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.132.152.2050.25%46.96%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Paderborn (Visit)

Prediction 31.03%3.22fair odd
EV +0.532%
Edge +0.164%
Kelly +0.238%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.51%30.97%31.08%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.2436.36%33.67%33.33%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.366%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.77%25.67%25.71%27.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.563.553.8532.26%28.09%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elversberg (Local): 43.27%; SC Paderborn (Visit): 31.03%; Draw: 25.70%. For SC Paderborn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.532%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.19%EV -5.24%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV +0.532%E +0.164%K +0.238%G +0.001%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV -4.13%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -0.709%E -0.221%K -0.322%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 06:00
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -2.33%E -0.613%K -0.832%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 07:15
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 11:14
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 11:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -8.27%E -3.90%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:15
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:16
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:15
Suprabets🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.84%EV -7.84%E -3.68%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.22%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 11:03
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 08:01
LowVig.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.14%EV -5.24%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.98%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 11:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.14%EV -5.24%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.98%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.11%E -2.81%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.11%E -2.81%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 10:51
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:20
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.39%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -1.04%E -0.271%K -0.366%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -3.61%E -0.964%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 10:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.07%EV -5.24%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 10:31
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:50
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:55
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -7.41%E -3.46%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 10:50
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -7.41%E -3.46%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 10:51
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 05:55
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 11:15
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.53%E -2.53%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 10:31
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.53%E -2.53%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 10:30
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 10:55
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 10:30
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.02%EV -8.27%E -3.90%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 10:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:01
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 10:30
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 11:15
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 11:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.78%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.28%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 10:30
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-03 11:15
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 10:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 10:51
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 10:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.24%EV -10.43%E -5.04%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.19%EV -10.95%E -3.81%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-03 11:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.02%EV -11.73%E -5.75%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -11.57%E -4.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -13.89%E -4.15%K -5.91%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-03 10:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.79%EV -13.90%E -6.98%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.58%EV -11.57%E -4.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-03 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 10:55
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:00
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 10:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -13.46%E -6.73%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -20.32%E -6.55%K -9.68%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-03 11:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.90%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -14.67%E -5.34%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-03 10:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.07%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.07%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.07%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-05-03 11:25
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.93%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.24%1.6%2026-05-03 11:25
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.0%2026-05-03 11:00