La escuela de los momios

Elversberg v SC Paderborn

Inicio: 2026-05-03 11:30 UTC

Final: Elversberg 5–1 SC Paderborn

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Elversberg (Local)

Predicción 43.27%2.31momio equitativo
EV -4.81%
Ventaja -2.19%
Kelly -4.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.13%43.36%43.20%44.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.992.132.152.2050.25%46.96%46.51%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Paderborn (Visitante)

Predicción 31.03%3.22momio equitativo
EV +0.532%
Ventaja +0.164%
Kelly +0.238%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.24

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.51%30.97%31.08%32.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.973.003.2436.36%33.67%33.33%30.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.70%3.89momio equitativo
EV -1.04%
Ventaja -0.271%
Kelly -0.366%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.77%25.67%25.71%27.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.563.553.8532.26%28.09%28.17%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.19I 45.66%NM 44.19%EV -5.24%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV +0.532%E +0.164%K +0.238%G +0.001%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV -4.13%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -0.709%E -0.221%K -0.322%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 06:00
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -2.33%E -0.613%K -0.832%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 07:15
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 11:14
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 11:05
Marathon Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -8.27%E -3.90%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:15
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:16
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -3.81%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:15
Suprabets2.13I 46.95%NM 43.84%EV -7.84%E -3.68%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.22%EV -4.12%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 11:03
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 08:01
LowVig.ag2.19I 45.66%NM 43.14%EV -5.24%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.98%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 11:05
BetOnline.ag2.19I 45.66%NM 43.14%EV -5.24%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.98%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 11:05
ATG (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.11%E -2.81%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 10:50
Svenska Spel2.17I 46.08%NM 43.21%EV -6.11%E -2.81%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 10:51
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:20
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.39%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -1.04%E -0.271%K -0.366%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 11:00
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -3.61%E -0.964%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 10:30
Codere (IT)2.19I 45.66%NM 43.07%EV -5.24%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 10:31
Unibet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
Unibet (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:50
Casumo2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
Unibet (NL)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
Grosvenor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
TABtouch2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:51
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:55
betPARX2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -7.41%E -3.46%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 10:50
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -7.41%E -3.46%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 10:51
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 05:55
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 11:15
Betsson2.15I 46.51%NM 43.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.53%E -2.53%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 10:31
NordicBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.53%E -2.53%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 10:30
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 10:55
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 10:30
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 43.02%EV -8.27%E -3.90%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 10:51
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:01
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:00
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 10:30
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 11:15
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 11:15
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.78%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.28%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 10:30
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.02%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-03 11:15
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.97%E -3.24%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 10:59
Virgin Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 10:51
LiveScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 10:49
Betclic (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 43.24%EV -10.43%E -5.04%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.19%EV -10.95%E -3.81%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-03 11:05
PMU (FR)2.04I 49.02%NM 43.02%EV -11.73%E -5.75%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -11.57%E -4.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -13.89%E -4.15%K -5.91%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-03 10:50
NetBet (FR)1.99I 50.25%NM 43.79%EV -13.90%E -6.98%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.58%EV -11.57%E -4.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-03 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 10:55
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:00
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 10:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.14%E -4.35%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -13.46%E -6.73%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -20.32%E -6.55%K -9.68%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-03 11:10
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.90%EV -11.30%E -5.51%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -14.67%E -5.34%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-03 10:31
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.07%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.07%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.07%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-05-03 11:25
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.93%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.24%1.6%2026-05-03 11:25
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.0%2026-05-03 11:00