Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.02
assuming max odds 3.80
assuming max odds 3.85
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elversberg (Local): 47.88%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 26.92%; Draw: 25.19%. For Arminia Bielefeld (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.31%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV +2.31%E +0.609%K +0.826%G +0.019% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-17 11:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV +2.31%E +0.609%K +0.826%G +0.019% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-17 11:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-17 11:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-17 11:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.89%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 11:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.89%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-17 11:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.93%EV -3.28%E -1.62%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -1.73%E -0.473%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.55%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.24%EV -15.25%E -8.61%K -19.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-17 11:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.24%EV -15.25%E -8.61%K -19.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-17 11:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.08%EV -5.19%E -2.62%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -3.01%E -0.782%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.02%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 10:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.58%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -6.30%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -8.30%E -2.28%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -8.05%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 11:53 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -8.05%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.06%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.06%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 11:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -5.19%E -2.62%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.28%E -1.62%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.24%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.78%EV -3.51%E -0.917%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.38%EV -9.02%E -4.75%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.26%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -10.34%E -3.11%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 24.94%EV -9.81%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 11:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 11:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 10:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 10:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -16.87%E -5.11%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.72%EV -13.81%E -7.67%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.70%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.94%EV -11.89%E -6.46%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.57%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.20%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -13.09%E -3.79%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-21 11:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 47.34%EV -14.77%E -8.30%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.33%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.33%EV -19.38%E -6.06%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -16.53%E -5.33%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -21.90%E -7.07%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 49.02% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.98% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 25.00% | -0.0% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.06% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14% | 2.0% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |