La escuela de los momios

Elversberg v Arminia Bielefeld

Inicio: 2026-03-21 12:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Elversberg (Local)

Predicción 47.88%2.09momio equitativo
EV -3.28%
Ventaja -1.62%
Kelly -3.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.80%47.93%47.97%50.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.771.911.922.0256.50%52.35%52.08%49.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arminia Bielefeld (Visitante)

Predicción 26.92%3.71momio equitativo
EV +2.31%
Ventaja +0.609%
Kelly +0.826%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.61%26.81%26.91%28.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.493.483.8032.26%28.66%28.74%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.19%3.97momio equitativo
EV -3.01%
Ventaja -0.782%
Kelly -1.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.19%25.26%25.12%27.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.643.703.8532.26%27.49%27.03%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV +2.31%E +0.609%K +0.826%G +0.019%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-17 11:30
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV +2.31%E +0.609%K +0.826%G +0.019%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-17 11:30
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
TABtouch1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Unibet (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
betPARX1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-17 11:29
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-17 11:30
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 48.89%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 11:44
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 48.89%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 11:45
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 11:55
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-17 11:30
Pinnacle2.02I 49.50%NM 47.93%EV -3.28%E -1.62%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -1.73%E -0.473%K -0.651%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.55%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-21 11:45
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 11:54
LiveScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 50.24%EV -15.25%E -8.61%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-17 11:30
Virgin Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 50.24%EV -15.25%E -8.61%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-17 11:30
Coolbet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.08%EV -5.19%E -2.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -3.01%E -0.782%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 11:54
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 11:55
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Codere (IT)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.02%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 11:55
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 11:54
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 10:40
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 11:54
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 11:54
Marathon Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 47.58%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -6.30%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -8.30%E -2.28%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 11:55
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -8.05%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 11:53
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -8.05%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 11:55
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.06%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 11:54
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.06%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 11:44
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 11:45
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 11:55
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -5.19%E -2.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 11:54
1xBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.28%E -1.62%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.24%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.78%EV -3.51%E -0.917%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 11:55
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.38%EV -9.02%E -4.75%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-21 11:55
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.26%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -10.34%E -3.11%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.94%EV -9.81%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 11:55
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 11:44
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 11:45
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 11:44
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 11:45
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 10:40
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 10:40
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 10:40
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -16.87%E -5.11%K -7.33%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-21 11:54
Parions Sport (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.72%EV -13.81%E -7.67%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.70%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-21 11:55
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 47.94%EV -11.89%E -6.46%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-21 11:54
NetBet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.57%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.20%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -13.09%E -3.79%K -5.34%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-21 11:54
PMU (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 47.34%EV -14.77%E -8.30%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.33%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.33%EV -19.38%E -6.06%K -8.81%G +0.000%18.7%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -16.53%E -5.33%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -21.90%E -7.07%K -10.43%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-21 11:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 49.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.00%-0.0%2026-03-21 11:55
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.06%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%2.0%2026-03-21 11:55