L’École des cotes

Elversberg v Arminia Bielefeld

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-21 12:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Elversberg (Local)

Prévision 47.88%2.09cote équitable
EV -3.28%
Avantage -1.62%
Kelly -3.21%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.80%47.93%47.97%50.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.771.911.922.0256.50%52.35%52.08%49.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arminia Bielefeld (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.92%3.71cote équitable
EV +2.31%
Avantage +0.609%
Kelly +0.826%
Croissance +0.019%

avec la cote maximale 3.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.61%26.81%26.91%28.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.493.483.8032.26%28.66%28.74%26.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.19%3.97cote équitable
EV -3.01%
Avantage -0.782%
Kelly -1.06%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.19%25.26%25.12%27.60%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.643.703.8532.26%27.49%27.03%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV +2.31%E +0.609%K +0.826%G +0.019%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-17 11:30
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -10.46%E -5.59%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV +2.31%E +0.609%K +0.826%G +0.019%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-17 11:30
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
TABtouch1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Unibet (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
betPARX1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 12:05
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-17 11:29
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV +0.967%E +0.258%K +0.352%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-17 11:30
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 48.89%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 11:44
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 48.89%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 11:45
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 11:55
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -0.379%E -0.103%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-17 11:30
Pinnacle2.02I 49.50%NM 47.93%EV -3.28%E -1.62%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -1.73%E -0.473%K -0.651%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.55%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-21 11:45
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 11:54
LiveScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 50.24%EV -15.25%E -8.61%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-17 11:30
Virgin Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 50.24%EV -15.25%E -8.61%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-17 11:30
Coolbet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.08%EV -5.19%E -2.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -3.01%E -0.782%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 11:54
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 11:55
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Codere (IT)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.02%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 11:55
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 11:54
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 10:40
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 11:54
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 11:54
Marathon Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 47.58%EV -6.15%E -3.14%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -6.30%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -8.30%E -2.28%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 11:55
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -8.05%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 11:53
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -8.05%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 11:55
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.06%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 11:54
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.06%E -4.20%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 11:44
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 11:45
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 11:55
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -5.19%E -2.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 11:54
1xBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.28%E -1.62%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.24%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.78%EV -3.51%E -0.917%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 11:55
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.38%EV -9.02%E -4.75%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-21 11:55
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.26%EV -11.42%E -6.17%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -10.34%E -3.11%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.94%EV -9.81%E -2.74%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 11:55
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -4.23%E -2.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 11:44
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 11:45
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 11:44
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 11:45
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.63%E -3.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 10:40
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 10:40
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 10:40
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -16.87%E -5.11%K -7.33%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-21 11:54
Parions Sport (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.72%EV -13.81%E -7.67%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.70%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-21 11:55
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 47.94%EV -11.89%E -6.46%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-21 11:54
NetBet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.57%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.20%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -13.09%E -3.79%K -5.34%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-21 11:54
PMU (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 47.34%EV -14.77%E -8.30%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.33%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.33%EV -19.38%E -6.06%K -8.81%G +0.000%18.7%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -16.53%E -5.33%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -21.90%E -7.07%K -10.43%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-21 11:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 49.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.00%-0.0%2026-03-21 11:55
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-03-21 11:55
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.06%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%2.0%2026-03-21 11:55