Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.95
assuming max odds 4.10
assuming max odds 4.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 51.50%; Hertha Berlin (Visit): 24.37%; Draw: 24.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.38%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -4.73%E -2.56%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV +1.38%E +0.329%K +0.432%G +0.006% | 4.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.01%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -1.03%E -0.251%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.65%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.65%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.27%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -0.100%E -0.024%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.40%EV -5.38%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.73%E -2.56%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -9.37%E -5.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.56%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -7.07%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.75%E -0.951%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.75%E -0.951%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-17 10:38 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.16%EV -14.00%E -8.38%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 23.48%EV -7.90%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -6.79%E -3.75%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.26%EV -1.81%E -0.448%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.94%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -6.79%E -3.75%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.89%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 10:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -7.82%E -4.37%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -1.32%E -0.325%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.82%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 10:38 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.28%EV -12.46%E -7.33%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.28%EV -12.46%E -7.33%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV +0.416%E +0.213%K +0.438%G +0.002% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -13.49%E -8.03%K -19.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -11.06%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.93%EV -11.43%E -6.64%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -15.94%E -4.62%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.88%E -5.65%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.28%EV -11.94%E -6.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -1.64%E -0.861%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -1.64%E -0.861%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.88%E -5.65%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.17%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -15.94%E -4.62%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -17.93%E -5.27%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-17 08:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.19%EV -10.91%E -6.31%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.03%EV -17.16%E -5.05%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.79%EV -20.34%E -6.16%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 50.51% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 25.26% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 24.23% | -1.0% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 0.6% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71% | 1.2% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64% | 1.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64% | 1.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.46% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.57% | 1.7% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |