L’École des cotes

Arminia Bielefeld v Hertha Berlin

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 13:30 UTC

Score final : Arminia Bielefeld 6–1 Hertha Berlin

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Prévision 51.50%1.94cote équitable
EV +0.416%
Avantage +0.213%
Kelly +0.438%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.81%51.37%51.43%53.16%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.671.801.801.9559.88%55.70%55.56%51.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Hertha Berlin (Visiteur)

Prévision 24.37%4.10cote équitable
EV -0.100%
Avantage -0.024%
Kelly -0.032%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.04%24.46%24.44%26.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.783.804.1029.41%26.46%26.32%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.14%4.14cote équitable
EV +1.38%
Avantage +0.329%
Kelly +0.432%
Croissance +0.006%

avec la cote maximale 4.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.78%24.17%24.13%26.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.793.804.2030.30%26.36%26.32%23.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Coolbet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -4.73%E -2.56%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV +1.38%E +0.329%K +0.432%G +0.006%4.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.01%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -1.03%E -0.251%K -0.333%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 10:39
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:40
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 10:40
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.65%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:05
Svenska Spel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.65%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:05
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 52.27%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -0.100%E -0.024%K -0.032%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.40%EV -5.38%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 10:40
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.73%E -2.56%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:06
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:06
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:05
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:05
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:05
Unibet (NL)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:06
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:06
BetRivers1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 08:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 08:06
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:40
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -9.37%E -5.32%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 08:06
Bovada1.82I 54.95%NM 51.56%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -7.07%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 10:40
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.75%E -0.951%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.75%E -0.951%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:40
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 10:38
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Betclic (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 53.16%EV -14.00%E -8.38%K -20.90%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.48%EV -7.90%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-17 10:40
1xBet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -6.79%E -3.75%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.26%EV -1.81%E -0.448%K -0.596%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.94%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:39
Suprabets1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -6.79%E -3.75%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.89%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 10:35
Marathon Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -7.82%E -4.37%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -1.32%E -0.325%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.82%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 10:38
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.28%EV -12.46%E -7.33%K -17.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-17 08:06
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.28%EV -12.46%E -7.33%K -17.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-17 08:05
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV +0.416%E +0.213%K +0.438%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:20
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 10:39
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 10:40
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 10:39
PMU (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -13.49%E -8.03%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -11.06%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-17 08:05
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.93%EV -11.43%E -6.64%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -15.94%E -4.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.88%E -5.65%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 51.28%EV -11.94%E -6.98%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-17 10:40
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -1.64%E -0.861%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:06
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -1.64%E -0.861%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:05
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.88%E -5.65%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-17 10:40
NetBet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 49.17%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -15.94%E -4.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -17.93%E -5.27%K -7.47%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-17 08:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.19%EV -10.91%E -6.31%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.03%EV -17.16%E -5.05%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.79%EV -20.34%E -6.16%K -8.84%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.26%4.17I 23.98%NM 24.23%-1.0%2026-05-17 08:06
Matchbook1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%0.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%1.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%1.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.46%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.57%1.7%2026-05-17 10:40