La escuela de los momios

Arminia Bielefeld v Hertha Berlin

Inicio: 2026-05-17 13:30 UTC

Final: Arminia Bielefeld 6–1 Hertha Berlin

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Predicción 51.50%1.94momio equitativo
EV +0.416%
Ventaja +0.213%
Kelly +0.438%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.81%51.37%51.43%53.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.801.801.9559.88%55.70%55.56%51.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Hertha Berlin (Visitante)

Predicción 24.37%4.10momio equitativo
EV -0.100%
Ventaja -0.024%
Kelly -0.032%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.04%24.46%24.44%26.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.783.804.1029.41%26.46%26.32%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.14%4.14momio equitativo
EV +1.38%
Ventaja +0.329%
Kelly +0.432%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.78%24.17%24.13%26.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.793.804.2030.30%26.36%26.32%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -4.73%E -2.56%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV +1.38%E +0.329%K +0.432%G +0.006%4.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.01%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -1.03%E -0.251%K -0.333%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 10:39
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:40
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -3.44%E -0.861%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 10:40
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.65%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:05
Svenska Spel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.65%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:05
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 52.27%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -0.100%E -0.024%K -0.032%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.40%EV -5.38%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 10:40
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.73%E -2.56%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:06
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:06
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:05
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:05
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:05
Unibet (NL)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:06
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 52.12%EV -8.34%E -4.68%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 08:06
BetRivers1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 08:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 08:06
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:40
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -9.37%E -5.32%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 08:06
Bovada1.82I 54.95%NM 51.56%EV -6.28%E -3.45%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -7.07%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 10:40
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.75%E -0.951%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.75%E -0.951%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:40
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 10:38
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Betclic (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 53.16%EV -14.00%E -8.38%K -20.90%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.48%EV -7.90%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.27%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-17 10:40
1xBet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -6.79%E -3.75%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.26%EV -1.81%E -0.448%K -0.596%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.94%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:39
Suprabets1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -6.79%E -3.75%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.89%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 10:35
Marathon Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -7.82%E -4.37%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -1.32%E -0.325%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.82%EV -9.24%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 10:38
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.28%EV -12.46%E -7.33%K -17.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-17 08:06
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.28%EV -12.46%E -7.33%K -17.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-17 08:05
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV +0.416%E +0.213%K +0.438%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:20
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -5.76%E -3.15%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 10:39
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 10:40
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 10:39
PMU (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -13.49%E -8.03%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -11.06%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-17 08:05
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.93%EV -11.43%E -6.64%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -15.94%E -4.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.31%E -4.06%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.88%E -5.65%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 51.28%EV -11.94%E -6.98%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-17 10:40
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -1.64%E -0.861%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:06
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -1.64%E -0.861%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:05
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.88%E -5.65%K -13.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.51%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-17 10:40
NetBet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 49.17%EV -8.85%E -5.00%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -15.94%E -4.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -17.93%E -5.27%K -7.47%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-17 08:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.19%EV -10.91%E -6.31%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.03%EV -17.16%E -5.05%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.79%EV -20.34%E -6.16%K -8.84%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 50.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.26%4.17I 23.98%NM 24.23%-1.0%2026-05-17 08:06
Matchbook1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%0.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.75%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%1.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%1.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.46%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.57%1.7%2026-05-17 10:40